447
FXUS61 KCLE 081116
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
716 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. FIRST, FOR THE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
TODAY, THERE COULD BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED BUT LIMITED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CUMULUS FIELD THAT WILL
TRY TO PUT OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO HERE AND THERE. THE LOW LEVEL RH IS
QUESTIONABLE, HOWEVER. OUTSIDE OF THAT, THE FORECAST REVERTS TO DRY
INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
WINDS EASE INTO TONIGHT, AND WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RADIATE FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. IT IS NOT
A PERFECT SETUP, HOWEVER. FIRST, IN THE 925MB ENE FLOW, SOME LOW
STRATUS FORMATION GENERALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND INTO THE SOME OF
THE INLAND COUNTIES OFF THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE. ALSO, WINDS
MAY HANG ON TO 5KTS OR SO MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE COOLING UNDER CONTROL AND ALSO INHIBIT FROST
FORMATION. THIS WIND FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT TO
THE FROST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED
TODAY, AS JUST A COUPLE DEGREE DECREASE IN THE VELOCITY AT THE
SURFACE COULD CHANGE THE TEMPS AND FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY FROM A
FROST STANDPOINT. FOR TONIGHT AND THIS ISSUANCE, NW PA AND THE FIRST
TIER OF COUNTIES INTO NE OH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO FROST WHERE THE
WIND SHOULD BE 3KTS OR LESS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
SHOULD BE ACHIEVABLE. SO WILL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THIS MORNING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD, LEAVING IT EXPANDABLE
WESTWARD IF NEEDED LATER TODAY. LAKESHORE COUNTIES ARE NOT AT RISK
FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED FROST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
FROST CWA-WIDE AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE, AND LIKELY FREEZES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MOST EFFICIENT IN THE
RURAL/VALLEY/OUTLYING AREAS FROM NW PA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
WAYNE/ASHLAND COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS FALL
SEASON SO FAR, AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS OR CLOUDS TO BE ANY SORT OF
INHIBITING FACTOR, UNLIKE THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS ALL DUE TO
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURN TO LAKE ERIE AND THE NORTHERN
CWA SATURDAY WITH A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FILLING SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ENGAGE WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
CLOSED LOW THAT DIVES TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE INTERACTIONS AND TO WHAT, IF ANY WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THEIR EFFECTS REACH OUR CWA. OTHERWISE, UPPER RIDGING
WEDGES BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING.
AFTER EARLY SUNDAY FROM THE EXITING UPPER LOW, THE LONG TERM
FORECAST IS DRY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING DOMINANT TODAY. AS A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BECOMES SETTLED OVER THE AREA, SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM SOUTH TODAY
WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS HOVERING NEAR 3.5KFT.
WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE NORTH AT 7-12 KNOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ISOLATED TO NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY CLOSEST TO THE LAKESHORE. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FURTHER EAST, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEAR SUNSET TO 5-10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE, WINDS
TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 15-25 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM THE NORTH. THIS ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 4-6 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
ALLOWS WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 1-3 FEET. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER THE ARE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK BEHIND THE LOW TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BRIEFLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES, THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ014-023-
033.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
149.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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