124
FXUS61 KCLE 081721
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. FIRST, FOR THE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
TODAY, THERE COULD BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED BUT LIMITED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CUMULUS FIELD THAT WILL
TRY TO PUT OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO HERE AND THERE. THE LOW LEVEL RH IS
QUESTIONABLE, HOWEVER. OUTSIDE OF THAT, THE FORECAST REVERTS TO DRY
INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
WINDS EASE INTO TONIGHT, AND WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RADIATE FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. IT IS NOT
A PERFECT SETUP, HOWEVER. FIRST, IN THE 925MB ENE FLOW, SOME LOW
STRATUS FORMATION GENERALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND INTO THE SOME OF
THE INLAND COUNTIES OFF THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE. ALSO, WINDS
MAY HANG ON TO 5KTS OR SO MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE COOLING UNDER CONTROL AND ALSO INHIBIT FROST
FORMATION. THIS WIND FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT TO
THE FROST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED
TODAY, AS JUST A COUPLE DEGREE DECREASE IN THE VELOCITY AT THE
SURFACE COULD CHANGE THE TEMPS AND FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY FROM A
FROST STANDPOINT. FOR TONIGHT AND THIS ISSUANCE, NW PA AND THE FIRST
TIER OF COUNTIES INTO NE OH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO FROST WHERE THE
WIND SHOULD BE 3KTS OR LESS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
SHOULD BE ACHIEVABLE. SO WILL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS THIS MORNING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD, LEAVING IT EXPANDABLE
WESTWARD IF NEEDED LATER TODAY. LAKESHORE COUNTIES ARE NOT AT RISK
FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED FROST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
FROST CWA-WIDE AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE, AND LIKELY FREEZES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MOST EFFICIENT IN THE
RURAL/VALLEY/OUTLYING AREAS FROM NW PA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
WAYNE/ASHLAND COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS FALL
SEASON SO FAR, AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS OR CLOUDS TO BE ANY SORT OF
INHIBITING FACTOR, UNLIKE THE TONIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS ALL DUE TO
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURN TO LAKE ERIE AND THE NORTHERN
CWA SATURDAY WITH A COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN ACCOMPANYING FILLING SURFACE LOW.
TEMPERATURES MODIFY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ENGAGE WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
CLOSED LOW THAT DIVES TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE INTERACTIONS AND TO WHAT, IF ANY WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THEIR EFFECTS REACH OUR CWA. OTHERWISE, UPPER RIDGING
WEDGES BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO CONTINUED GRADUAL WARMING.
AFTER EARLY SUNDAY FROM THE EXITING UPPER LOW, THE LONG TERM
FORECAST IS DRY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ALOFT, NW'ERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN OH AND NW PA AS A
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND EVENTUALLY
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 18Z/THURS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUR REGION AS THE PARENT HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WOBBLES E'WARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN ON. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS VEER
GRADUALLY FROM NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL VARY BETWEEN ABOUT 5 AND 15
KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY UNTIL ~23Z/WED.
WIDESPREAD VFR AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI ARE EXPECTED OVER AND
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH 18Z/THURS. THE EVOLUTION OF MEAN
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATOCUMULI TO STREAM GENERALLY
S'WARD FROM THE LAKE THROUGH ~03Z/THURS AND THEN STREAM GENERALLY
SW'WARD FROM THE LAKE THROUGH 18Z/THURS. CUMULI, PRIMARILY
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ~23Z/WED AND AFTER
~14Z/THURS. ALL OF THESE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
BASES NEAR 4KFT AGL.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MONDAY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
ARE POSSIBLE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE, WINDS
TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 15-25 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM THE NORTH. THIS ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 4-6 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
ALLOWS WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 1-3 FEET. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER THE ARE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK BEHIND THE LOW TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BRIEFLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES, THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ014-023-
033.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
149.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...04
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