292
FXUS61 KCLE 081759
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
159 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST TO EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM WITH COOLER, QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED. MAIN FOCUS POINT DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A FROST ADVISORY OUT FOR THE FAR EASTERN OHIO
COUNTIES AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA VALID FROM 2 AM THROUGH 9 AM
THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOCALIZED FROST FURTHER WEST
TOWARDS WAYNE AND HOLMES COUNTIES, THOUGH THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. AREAS FURTHER WEST OF THAT, THERE
WILL BE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TONIGHT AND LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER TOP OF THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATION COOLING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AND AN ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. THE ONLY LOCATIONS STAYING JUST WARM ENOUGH TO MISS OUT ON
THE FROST WILL BE THOSE CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE. IN AREAS THAT HAVE
MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH THAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM. ON SATURDAY, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE IT AS A WEAK SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL NEED TO WATCH
TO SEE HOW IT INTERACTS WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST, BUT CURRENTLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
BEING WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE MID TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
QUIET, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN CONUS. THERE
MAY BE SOME GRADUAL WARMING, BUT DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ALOFT, NW'ERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN OH AND NW PA AS A
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND EVENTUALLY
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH 18Z/THURS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUR REGION AS THE PARENT HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WOBBLES E'WARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN ON. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS VEER
GRADUALLY FROM NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL VARY BETWEEN ABOUT 5 AND 15
KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY UNTIL ~23Z/WED.
WIDESPREAD VFR AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI ARE EXPECTED OVER AND
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH 18Z/THURS. THE EVOLUTION OF MEAN
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATOCUMULI TO STREAM GENERALLY
S'WARD FROM THE LAKE THROUGH ~03Z/THURS AND THEN STREAM GENERALLY
SW'WARD FROM THE LAKE THROUGH 18Z/THURS. CUMULI, PRIMARILY
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ~23Z/WED AND AFTER
~14Z/THURS. ALL OF THESE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
BASES NEAR 4KFT AGL.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MONDAY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
ARE POSSIBLE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE, WINDS
TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 15-25 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM THE NORTH. THIS ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 4-6 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
ALLOWS WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 1-3 FEET. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER THE ARE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK BEHIND THE LOW TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BRIEFLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES, THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ014-023-
033.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-
149.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...04
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