393
FXUS61 KCLE 090538
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
138 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST TO EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM WITH COOLER, QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED. MAIN FOCUS POINT DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A FROST ADVISORY OUT FOR THE FAR EASTERN OHIO
COUNTIES AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA VALID FROM 2 AM THROUGH 9 AM
THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOCALIZED FROST FURTHER WEST
TOWARDS WAYNE AND HOLMES COUNTIES, THOUGH THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. AREAS FURTHER WEST OF THAT, THERE
WILL BE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TONIGHT AND LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER TOP OF THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATION COOLING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THIS
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AND AN ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. THE ONLY LOCATIONS STAYING JUST WARM ENOUGH TO MISS OUT ON
THE FROST WILL BE THOSE CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE. IN AREAS THAT HAVE
MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH THAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM. ON SATURDAY, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE IT AS A WEAK SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL NEED TO WATCH
TO SEE HOW IT INTERACTS WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST, BUT CURRENTLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
BEING WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE MID TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
QUIET, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN CONUS. THERE
MAY BE SOME GRADUAL WARMING, BUT DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST AS
ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS DISSIPATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
CU FIELD IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MONDAY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY
FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY AND UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY FROM THE
ISLANDS TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE. A RIDGE AFFECTS LAKE ERIE THROUGH
THIS THURSDAY AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WOBBLES SE'WARD
FROM NEAR THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI TO CENTRAL NY. NNW'ERLY TO
NE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5
FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, N'ERLY TO
E'ERLY WINDS EASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND ALLOW
WAVES TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TO 3 FEET OR LESS. ON THURSDAY, NE'ERLY
TO E'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED.
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS MONDAY. DURING THURSDAY NIGHT, A WARM
FRONT SWEEPS N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND CAUSES PRIMARILY E'ERLY
WINDS TO VEER TO S'ERLY. S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS GENERALLY
E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE, A LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT, AND THE LOW
MOVES GENERALLY N'WARD OVER LAKE ERIE AND VICINITY. PRIMARILY
NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014-023-033.
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ148-149.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...04
MARINE...JASZKA
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