543
FXUS61 KCLE 090704
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
304 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE TRACK OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL ADD COMPLICATIONS TO THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA, AND ULTIMATELY THE NEED
FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS. FIRST, ENE LOW LEVEL/SURFACE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH AROUND 17Z
TODAY, OTHERWISE, SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST, BUT A COOL DAY
IN STORE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TODAY WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT,
BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DISTANCES ITSELF FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 925MB
WINDS 20-25KTS AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 4-6KTS OVER FAR NE OH AND
NW PA WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO A DEGREE, AND COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT
BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR FURTHER WEST IN THE CWA WHERE SHELTERED AREAS
SHOULD GO CALM OR NEARLY CALM, AND TEMPERATURES COULD DROP JUST A
BIT MORE IN THESE AREAS. ULTIMATELY, LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
MID 30S TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS, AND WILL
NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA. THE PRUDENT THING
TO DO HERE IS TO LEAVE FREEZE OUT FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SET OF
GUIDANCE COME IN TO DETERMINE FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THIS MAY END
UP BEING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. WARMER ON FRIDAY,
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A FILLING CLOSED UPPER LOW AND FILLING SURFACE LOW WILL DROP INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, AND WITH IT A CHANGE FROM THE FORECAST 24
HOURS AGO. DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM, POPS HAVE
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MORE ROBUST QPF FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LINGERING AREAS OF LOW LEVEL F-GEN WILL RESTRENGTHEN OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY TIME
FRAME, AND THIS IS WHERE FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE QUARTER
TO HALF INCH RANGE. AGAIN, THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS
WHICH HAD FAR LOWER POPS AND NEGLIGIBLE AMOUNTS IN THE QPF. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S, PUTTING A SLIGHT
DELAY IN THE OVERALL GRADUAL WARMING TREND, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
THE BULK OF THE POPS EXIT TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA
COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BACK TO THE DRY PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
FOR THE AREA, ACCOMPANIED BY GRADUAL TEMPERATURE INCREASES FOR THE
REGION. THE WARMING WILL BE STIFLED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW, HOWEVER, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST AS
ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS DISSIPATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
CU FIELD IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MONDAY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY
FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY AND UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY FROM THE
ISLANDS TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE. A RIDGE AFFECTS LAKE ERIE THROUGH
THIS THURSDAY AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WOBBLES SE'WARD
FROM NEAR THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI TO CENTRAL NY. NNW'ERLY TO
NE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5
FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, N'ERLY TO
E'ERLY WINDS EASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND ALLOW
WAVES TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TO 3 FEET OR LESS. ON THURSDAY, NE'ERLY
TO E'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED.
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS MONDAY. DURING THURSDAY NIGHT, A WARM
FRONT SWEEPS N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND CAUSES PRIMARILY E'ERLY
WINDS TO VEER TO S'ERLY. S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS GENERALLY
E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE, A LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT, AND THE LOW
MOVES GENERALLY N'WARD OVER LAKE ERIE AND VICINITY. PRIMARILY
NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ003-006-008-
010-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ014-023-033.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ148-149.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...JASZKA
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