293
FXUS61 KCLE 220553
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SSW'WARD FROM LONG POINT, ON AREA TO NEAR
SALEM, OH AT 9:49 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SOME STEADY TO HEAVY, WILL PERSIST E'WARD
AND SHOULD EXIT THE REST OF OUR REGION BY ROUGHLY 11 PM THIS
EVENING AS THE DOWNSHEAR GUST FRONT RELEASES WEAK POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL AMIDST MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LAKE-ENHANCED AND
SHOULD OCCASIONALLY EVOLVE INTO THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ERIE DUE
TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG LAKE-INDUCED CAPE OVER THE ~17C
LAKE. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS
TO ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT HAS ENDED AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER, OVER LAND, CONTINUES TO STABILIZE VIA
NOCTURNAL COOLING. AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS LINE, LAKE-EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM GENERALLY
NE'WARD OVER AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH TONIGHT AMIDST A
SW'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF SUFFICIENTLY-COLD AND RATHER
MOIST AIR. BEHIND THE FRONT AND OUTSIDE THE LAKE-EFFECT PRECIP,
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL IS RELEASED BY LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG E'WARD-MOVING SURFACE
TROUGH AXES ACCOMPANYING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
IN SW'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS VALID PER LATEST TRENDS IN OBS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. PLEASE SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A SHARP
SURFACE TROUGH (REALLY MORE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT) WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...IT IS NEAR THE OHIO/INDIANA
BORDER AS OF 3 PM. WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE LEFT-EXIT QUADRANT OF A
JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW AND AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX, A
BROKEN BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ACTIVITY
SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST WITH THE TROUGH BY MIDNIGHT, WITH THUNDER
POTENTIALLY GRADUALLY DECREASING AFTER 9 OR 10 PM. THE MAIN FOCUS
OVERNIGHT WILL THEN TURN TOWARDS A DEVELOPING BAND OF ROBUST LAKE
EFFECT RAIN, WHICH MAY INITIALLY GRAZE THE EASTERN LAKESHORE AS IT
TAKES SHAPE AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OFFSHORE AND INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK OVERNIGHT AMID DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT WILL BE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT ELSEWHERE, THOUGH AS
VARIOUS SPOKES OF MOISTURE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATE AROUND
THE LARGER CLOSED LOW A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY ON EITHER SIDE OF 0.10" WITH THIS EVENING'S LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION, WITH AMOUNTS WITH ANY OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY VERY LIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, WITH BRISK WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH, DRIVING "WIND CHILLS" INTO THE 30S.
THE SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW
TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE COLD CORE ALOFT AND DEEP LOW-
LEVEL INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER, WITH
SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SUPPORTING COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WITH MODERATE FLOW ALOFT, IT WON'T TAKE A
TON OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO GET SOME STRONG (40MPH+) TO PERHAPS
LOCALLY SEVERE (58MPH+) WIND GUSTS WITH THIS CONVECTION, ALONG WITH
SMALL/SOFT HAIL. SOME CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE
CONVECTION BRIEFLY CONGEALING INTO A COUPLE OF MORE SOLID LINE
SEGMENTS BETWEEN ABOUT 5-8 PM, WHICH WOULD BE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. SO, WILL MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SPECIAL WX STATEMENTS AND PERHAPS A WARNING OR TWO
THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT THE BITE OF ANY WIND GUSTS (AND ANY
SEVERE THREAT) WITH THE CONVECTION TO START DECREASING AFTER 8 PM, AS
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION PERHAPS ADDS JUST ENOUGH OF A NEAR-SURFACE
INVERSION TO LIMIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
TOWARDS QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
OCCASIONAL SURFACE TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES
CONTINUING TO ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL
CONTINUE CHILLY, BREEZY, AND SHOWERY WEATHER. SHOWER CHANCES
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO ANY SURFACE
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE PASSAGES, WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AT TIMES. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE
ERIE INTO THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.
THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE OFFSHORE AND INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TO START
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN UPTICK IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AND PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT
BAND SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SHORELINE BETWEEN LAKE COUNTY OH AND ERIE
COUNTY PA. LAKE EFFECT WILL STRUGGLE TO REALLY PUSH INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT (DESPITE WHAT SOME
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW), GIVEN FLOW QUICKLY WANTING TO BACK
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE, WHICH WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA
IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE WARMTH OF THE LAKE, ARGUING FOR A STRONG
LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH, A FEATURE THAT NOTORIOUSLY CAUSES STRONG,
SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO REMAIN TIED CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE THAN
MODELED. FOR THIS FORECAST, HEAVILY FAVORED THE RGEM FOR THE GENERAL
PLACEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND. THE TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY
MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ANYWHERE, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN, AND WILL VEER THE MEAN FLOW MORE SUBSTANTIALLY, PUSHING
THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT BAND CLOSER TO THE CLEVELAND AREA AND FARTHER
INLAND ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION FROM AN ORGANIZED SINGLE BAND TO MORE DISORGANIZED MULTI-
BANDS AT SOME POINT ON THURSDAY AS THE MEAN FLOW OVER THE LAKE GOES
CLOSER TO NORTHWEST. FROM THERE, LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO EBB AND
FLOW IN GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANY
ADDITION TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH, WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT ANOTHER
TROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. PASSING SPRINKLE/SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY
EXITS, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVER LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 17-18C, 500MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -26C, 700MB AROUND -12C, AND 850MB AROUND -2C SUGGEST VERY
STRONG AND DEEP INSTABILITY, WHICH IS VALIDATED BY RAW MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING CAPE EXTENDING TO 20K FEET OR HIGHER AT TIMES,
WHICH IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL IN THE MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND WHEN IT'S CRANKING.
THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE MOST FAVORABLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SLOWLY START WARMING. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE INTO THURSDAY WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE
CLOSED-LOW, WITH FAIRLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF WIND SHEAR EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF STRONGER SHEAR NEAR THE TROUGH PASSAGES. ALL THIS TO SAY
THAT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE INTENSE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH HEAVY
RAIN, THUNDER/LIGHTNING, AND SOME FROZEN HYDROMETEORS AT TIMES NEAR
THE LAKE. A SHORTER FETCH, SOMEWHAT MORE SHEAR, AND GRADUALLY
DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO INTENSITY GRADUALLY DECREASING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH NOT NEARLY TO THE POINT WHERE IT STOPS.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY QPF IS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY, WHEN ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST ALONG THE GENERAL I-90 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN LAKE COUNTY AND ERIE COUNTY PA WHILE INTENSE. THE FORECAST
MAINTAINS 1-3" OF RAIN BETWEEN LAKE, FAR NORTHEAST CUYAHOGA, AND
NORTHERN GEAUGA COUNTIES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ASHTABULA AND MUCH
OF ERIE COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
LOCALLY UP TO 4-5" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IF THE BAND IS ESPECIALLY
INTENSE/PERSISTENT IN ONE SPOT, THOUGH THOSE GAUDIER TOTALS WILL BE
MORE FEASIBLE JUST OFFSHORE OF ERIE COUNTY PA THAN ON LAND. STILL,
WILL MONITOR FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS IF A PERIOD OF FOCUSED
AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN CAN MATERIALIZE. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT DRAMATICALLY DROP OFF TOWARDS A CLE-YNG LINE, WHICH IS ABOUT AS
FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE ORGANIZED BAND MAY GET THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
BREAKING UP INTO MULTI-BANDS. LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOULD SEE LESS THAN 0.25" OF RAIN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE STUCK WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S, WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA IN THE 40S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, WARMEST IN THE PRIMARY
SNOWBELT AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT, AS APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLEARER SKIES.
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EXPECTED TROUGH PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES FRIDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA, THOUGH WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
SIGNIFICANT BY THEN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARDS
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD KEEP A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH OUT OF OUR PICTURE AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER.
SOME LOW POPS LINGER IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR NOW,
BUT ARE TRENDING DOWN. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE TO START NEXT WEEK. SOME ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY, MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH DAYBREAK AND PERSIST AT TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER LAKE ERIE. LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO KERI WHERE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEPT ANY TS MENTION OUT OF THE KERI TAF FOR NOW.
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY
DISTURBANCES ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALIZED LAKE-EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR WILL IMPACT THE SNOWBELT
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ACROSS QUEBEC THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF ACTIVE MARINE CONDITIONS ON
LAKE ERIE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF REINFORCING
TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION, KEEPING GUSTY WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AS WELL AS LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS AND
WATERSPOUTS.
WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS TONIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT CROSSES THIS EVENING. THESE WSW WINDS WILL
FURTHER INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS GALES ON MUCH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BUILD WAVE
HEIGHTS TO 7-10 FEET ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS TONIGHT AND 9-
14 FEET WEDNESDAY. UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FROM THE ISLANDS TO
RIPLEY, NY FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY FOR THESE HIGH
WINDS AND WAVES, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING ON THE FAR
WESTERN BASIN. ADDITIONALLY, THE FAVORABLE WSW DIRECTION WILL CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO DROP BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK OF -1 INCHES ABOVE LOW
WATER DATUM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SO ISSUED A LOW WATER
ADVISORY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT W WINDS
OF 15-25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WHILE TURNING MORE NW BY THEN, SO
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS.
WATERSPOUTS WILL ACCOMPANY LAKE-EFFECT RAIN BANDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, SO SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NEEDED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>144-
162>164.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>149.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LEZ144>149-164>169.
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...JASZKA/SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...13
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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