204
FXUS61 KCLE 221805
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
205 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXPANSIVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY THEN SHIFT
TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BRINGING THE COOLEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME FOCUSED OVER LAKE ERIE AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS ORIENTED DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARDS
BUFFALO. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA, WE EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FILL BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP
MOISTURE SPREADS EAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH BETWEEN 2-3K FEET.
HOWEVER THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO TAP INTO 35-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT
925MB WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL INCLUDE
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 35-40 MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN
SHOWERS BUT THAT WOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN, WHICH SHOULD
BE A LOWER THREAT THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. HIGHS TODAY WILL FEEL RATHER COOL AS
TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BUT WIND CHILLS
WILL FEEL CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT
WILL FOCUS THE MAIN RAIN BAND CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE WITH A
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION. PREFERENCE FOR
PLACEMENT CONTINUES TO LIE WITH THE REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL
WHICH HAS HEAVY RAIN SETTING UP FOR A GOOD 12 HOURS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO PUSH THE
BANDS MORE INLAND. LAKE INDUCED CAPE COMBINED WITH DEEP
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OVER 25K FEET WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL. FORECAST RAIN TOTALS
RANGE FROM 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE LAKE, ASHTABULA, AND ERIE COUNTY
SHORELINE. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER 24 HOURS, WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR RATES AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER BANDS FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OR AREAS HAVING PROBLEMS. POPS RAMP UP
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW SHIFTS MORE ONSHORE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXTENDING
INLAND ARE MORE IN THE 0.5-1.5" RANGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A MULTI-BAND NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THEN START TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW BACKS AND SHOWERS SHIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. WE MAINTAIN MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE DWINDLING ON FRIDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT, PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CLEARING ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MIXING
EXPECTED AND WINDS OF 4-8 MPH. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD FROST COULD DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE
SNOWBELT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD EVEN SEE A FREEZE IN
THE SOUTH IF WE MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.
THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM ALTHOUGH WILL CREEP A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF QUIET AS WE RESIDE ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE PLAINS TROUGH OPENS AND
LIFTS NORTH UP THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL KEEP PERIODIC SHOWERS ONGOING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
LAKE-EFFECT RAIN OVER FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CIGS ARE DECREASING TO MAINLY MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ONE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS. THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING, BUT CIGS WILL FREQUENTLY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW
VFR, WITH MVFR BEING THE MOST DOMINANT. THESE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT MOST TERMINALS HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE TO DRY OUT AS THE FOCUS TURNS BACK TO PURELY LAKE-EFFECT
RAIN AFFECTING KERI. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BAND OF LAKE-EFFECT RAIN INTO
KCLE BY 11 OR 12Z THEN EVENTUALLY THROUGH KCAK AND KYNG BETWEEN
13 AND 17Z, POSSIBLY CLIPPING KMFD TOO. ON THE OTHER HAND, KERI
SHOULD FINALLY SEE A DECREASE IN RAIN BY MID MORNING AS THE
BAND SHIFTS INLAND, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR. IN THIS PATTERN,
GIVING EXACT TIMES OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS/VIS IS ALWAYS
EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT TRIED TO BEST TIME THE TWO WINDOWS
OF GREATEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THURSDAY
MORNING. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL CONTINUE AS NEEDED.
WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING
TO 30-40 KNOTS AT TIMES, GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL TURN W TONIGHT AT 10-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS,
AND W TO WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY DISTURBANCES
ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALIZED LAKE-EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR WILL IMPACT THE SNOWBELT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MARINE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
CONTINUE. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, A LOW WATER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WATER LEVELS IN THE WESTERN
BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE
NAVIGATION. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING ZONES IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS WILL BE REPLACED BY A GALE WARNING THIS
MORNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT
BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AT 20-30 KNOTS WHILE TURNING NORTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE ONSHORE COMPONENT, WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4-8 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ONCE THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES
TONIGHT.
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
WATERSPOUTS TO DEVELOP THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED AS NEEDED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>144-
162>164.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ144>149-
164>169.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...13
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