512
FXUS61 KCLE 230539
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
139 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
8 PM UPDATE...
SOME MINOR, YET NOTABLE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING PRIMARILY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF BOTH WINDS
WEAKENING AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS PUSHING FURTHER INLAND. FIRST,
OPTED TO LOW WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-28 KNOTS RANGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS THE EXCEPTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKESHORE WHERE
STRONGER WINDS ARE MOVING IN OFF THE LAKE. WITH A MORE STABLE
SET UP OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT, GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE FASTER INLAND. IN ADDITION, BACKING WINDS HAVE TAKEN A
BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GAIN A SOLID NORTHWEST
COMPONENT, SO DELAYED THE SHOWERS PUSHING INLAND BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
IN ADDITION, OPTED TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS A BIT FURTHER WEST, WHICH NOW INCLUDES THE CLEVELAND
METRO. WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS, MUCH OF THE PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY SNOWBELTS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVING RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION, EXPECT THE SINGULAR BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO BREAK
INTO MULTI-BANDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH THE ENHANCED LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY, SOME OF
THESE STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LIGHTNING.
THIS HAS REMAINED PRIMARILY OVER LAKE ERIE, BUT GIVEN THE VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, OPTED TO ADD A CHANCE THUNDER WITH THIS
UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE DREARY AND CHILLY FALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 35
TO 40 MPH RANGE, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AND BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNSET.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND A SINGLE
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVER LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN NY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE BAND TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE LAKESHORE AREA OF NE
OH/NW PA BY EARLY EVENING WITH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN MOVING INTO NW OH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO BREAK INTO
MULTIPLE BANDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STEADIEST RAIN,
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING WILL LIE WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS ACROSS NE OH/NW
PA GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE FETCH AND MANY LOCATIONS CLOSE TO
LAKE ERIE COULD RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHOWERS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OHIO DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY BE CONFINED TO NE
OH/NW PA WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY RETURNING TO NW OH.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST AN INCH ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO
THE LAKESHORE IN NE OH/NW PA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING TWO-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
PRIMARY SNOWBELT WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3+ INCHES
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS PERSIST. THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND
LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL EVENT WILL PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING THREAT, HOWEVER RECENTLY FALLEN LEAVES CLOGGING STORM
DRAINS IN ADDITION TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS MAY CAUSE SOME
NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES. UNFORTUNATELY FOR ZONES IN NW OH THAT
ARE EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ALL SIGNS LEAD
TO TWO-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, HOWEVER BREEZY WINDS WILL
MOST LIKELY PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL VARY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT: MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH 30S ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. A FEW SPOTS MAY
CREEP CLOSE TO FREEZING WHERE CLOUD COVER DECREASES, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WINDS. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IF CLOUD COVER AND WINDS TREND LOWER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE EAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. 850MB MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE AND 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE
AND COOL 850MB TEMPS PERSISTING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY (75+
PERCENT) POPS CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY BEFORE REMAINING SHOWERS BEGIN TO DWINDLE AS THE HIGH
BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NW PA INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS
MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES BUT OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS WILL DRY
OUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
HIGHS MAYBE BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S CLOSE TO THE LAKE SATURDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER INLAND LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE MINIMUM TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CONFIDENCE IN FROST DEVELOPMENT IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE CLOUDS MAY CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY OUTSIDE
OF THE SNOWBELT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT'S LOWS
MAY REACH 32-33 DEGREES FROM ROUGHLY TOLEDO TO WOOSTER, BEST
CHANCE IF CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING LOWER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S, PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS RETURNING AS A SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, BUT
THERE'S STILL FAR TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO
DISCUSS ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LEADING TO PERIODS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LAKE ENHANCED RAIN OFF OF BOTH LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2000-3000 FOOT RANGE WITH BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL TO
REDUCE VISIBILITES TO THE MVFR RANGE WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TERMINALS. BEST POTENTIAL AT KERI
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT
KCLE/KCAK/KYNG.
GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN ACROSS INLAND
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF WINDOW WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND GUSTS
REMAINING ACROSS LAKESHORE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN
LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SNOWBELT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
STRONG WINDS WILL MAINTAIN NUMEROUS MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS DROP ACROSS THE REGION IN
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN WSW WINDS OF 20-35 KNOTS WILL GUST
TO 30-45 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASINS WHERE GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 04Z. THIS WILL BUILD
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 9-13 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS WHILE
ALSO TANKING WATER LEVELS IN THE WESTERN BASIN WELL BELOW THE
CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION. THE CRITICAL MARK REMAINS 1 INCH
BELOW LOW WATER DATUM, AND CURRENT LEVELS ARE NEARING 10 INCHES
BELOW LOW WATER DATUM. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS
EVENING, BUT THE LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 04Z.
THIS COULD MAYBE BE EXTENDED IF LEVELS ARE SLOWER TO SLOSH BACK UP,
AND TIMING OF THESE IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20-30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 15-25 KNOTS
THURSDAY WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING W TO WNW, BUT THIS WILL KEEP WAVES
IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ONCE THE GALE WARNINGS EXPIRE
TONIGHT SINCE IT IS LIKELY THAT WNW WINDS STAY IN THE 15-25 KNOT
RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY BECOME LIGHT THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE E WINDS
POTENTIALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
FINALLY, WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE AND MODERATE
TO STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WHEN A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE-EFFECT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND. ONCE THE FLOW TURNS MORE
NW AND THE LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS BECOME MULTI-BANDED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, WATERSPOUTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT THE
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER OVERALL.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>144-162>164.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142-
143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...04/15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...13
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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