650
FXUS61 KCLE 231737
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
137 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN DRIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN
LAKE EFFECT RAIN CONTINUING DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
LORAIN TO YOUNGSTOWN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY STREAM IN FROM DOWNWIND
OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO OTHER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
QPE HAS LARGELY REMAINED UNDER 0.5" SO FAR, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF LAKE, NORTHERN GEAUGA, AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES WHERE DUAL-POL
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION FROM KCLE (AND A FEW SELECT PUBLIC
WEATHER STATIONS IN THE AREA) REPORT 1-3". MOST OF THIS HAS FALLEN
WITHIN A SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS PRODUCED OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. A FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 5 AM FOR EASTERN LAKE COUNTY WHERE
0.5-1.5" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. TOTAL QPE
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM ONLY A FEW TENTHS, TO AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES - THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE "PRIMARY SNOWBELT", WHICH IS DEFINED BY
CUYAHOGA, LAKE, GEAUGA, ASHTABULA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND
ERIE/CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE HIGHER QPF OCCURS, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW- LYING AREAS OR ROADS WHERE LEAF DEBRIS CLOGS STORM DRAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S TO MID 30S. A FROST
ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT BUT
A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS STREAMING OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR LIGHT WINDS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SO, EVEN IF TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN
INTO THE 33-36 DEGREE RANGE, CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE
FOR FROST FORMATION.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AND PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. FROST IS LIKELY TO FORM
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FROST
ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS LIKELY NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED DESPITE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERHEAD. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION, WHICH
COULD GREATLY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT FROST
POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN INFLUENTIAL OF THE LOCAL
WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CONFINED
TO QUEBEC AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDDLE-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY BEFORE IMPACTING THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REVOLVING AROUND THE
STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE (WHICH COULD KEEP THIS
LOW AT BAY THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY), WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE TO NO RAIN ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW, WE HAVE POPS IN THE
20-40% RANGE ON TUESDAY INCREASING TO ~50% ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE, BUT IN MORE CELLULAR FORM. SO ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF -SHRA FROM THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING EVEN IF IT IS NOT ENOUGH FOR
PREVAILING OR EVEN TEMPO GROUPS. RESTRICTIONS FROM -SHRA SHOULD
BE MINIMAL TO NONE. FOR THE TERMINALS FURTHER TO THE EAST,
EXPECT THIS TO LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT, AND SO HAVE -SHRA
REPRESENTED IN SOME AREAS. IN THE MEANTIME, SOME OF THE LOW
LEVEL MIXING IS ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS TO PUSH INTO THE VFR
RANGE, BUT SOME TERMINALS COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF, AGAIN, PARTICULARLY THE
TERMINALS TO THE EAST WHERE -SHRA CHANCES ARE HIGHER AND THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPS GETTING PUSHED OFF OF LAKE ERIE. ALSO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOSE THE WINDS GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION,
AND SHOULD BE BELOW 10KTS LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN
LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SNOWBELT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED
WINDS TO CONTINUE ON MUCH OF THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. WATER LEVELS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION. AS SUCH,
HAVE CANCELED THE LOW WATER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT FROM MAUMEE BAY TO THE ISLANDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20-25 KNOTS WHILE TURNING
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20
KNOTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH GIVEN THE ONSHORE COMPONENT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION
UNTIL TONIGHT AND FROM VERMILION TO RIPLEY NY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS WHILE
REMAINING ONSHORE. ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS IN ANY LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...26
MARINE...13
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