203
FXUS61 KCLE 232333
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
733 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND DRIFT EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
615 PM UPDATE...
AFTER EVALUATING LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OVERALL OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS, OPTED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE STILL
REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT DIURNAL COOLING, THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD PROVIDE AT
LEAST SOME AREAS WITH ENOUGH CLEARING TO COOL TO NEAR 33 DEGREES.
IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY A BIT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, SUGGESTING THAT EARLIER MODELS WERE
SLIGHTLY MORE MILD THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, WHICH AGAIN MAY LIMIT SOME FROST
FORMATION. THE BIG TAKEAWAY IS THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE FACTORS
THAT MAY REDUCE FROST FORMATION, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE
FACTORS BEING WIDESPREAD IS NOT HIGH, THUS MANY AREAS WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FROST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD, RESULTING IN CONTINUED DREARY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
HIT AND MISS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ARE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NE OH AND
NW PA. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL ARE POSSIBLE
IN MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. PRECIP HAS LARGELY BECOME
CELLULAR/MULTIBANDED SO THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT TRAINING IS
SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION OF NE OH/NW
PA. ADDITIONAL QPF VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INLAND
ERIE COUNTY, PA AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUYAHOGA INTO GEAUGA
COUNTIES COULD BE UP TO AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE SNOWBELT, QPF VALUES
SHOULD BE UP TO HALF AN INCH WITH MUCH LOWER QPF VALUES OUTSIDE
OUT OF THE SNOWBELT. THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR FLOODING AND/OR
PONDING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH STORM DRAINS THAT ARE
CLOGGED WITH LEAVES AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
RAIN WILL BE MORE SCATTERED ON FRIDAY AND LARGELY EXPECT DRY
WEATHER ACROSS NW OH, BUT HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE PRONOUNCED BAND OF RAIN SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA DUE TO AN UPSTREAM LAKE HURON CONNECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WHERE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA TONIGHT WITH
LOW TO MID 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL
OHIO. WITH THAT BEING SAID, LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY PRODUCE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN INLAND WESTERN ZONES.
OVERALL FROST POTENTIAL FOR THE LOCAL AREA IS LOW TONIGHT GIVEN THE
HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED SURFACE/925MB WINDS, HOWEVER THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE SHARP AND CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST
BORDER OF THE CWA. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN ZONES, BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROST
FROM ROUGHLY FINDLAY TO MOUNT VERNON IF SKIES CLEAR MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MID 50S
POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NW OH, ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS MANAGE TO CLEAR
OUT. FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS A BIT MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE SNOWBELT
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SKY COVER DECREASES A BIT MORE AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. LOWS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DECK WILL MOST
LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS FROM
ROUGHLY CANTON TO BOWLING GREEN AND LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST POSSIBLY
APPROACHING OR FALLING JUST BELOW FREEZING. A FROST ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED, BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW THE CLOUD COVER
FORECAST TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS SOMEWHAT
LOW SINCE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, SO
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DWINDLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION,
HOWEVER ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY PERSIST DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE FROM MENTOR TO THE NY BORDER
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S EACH DAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EACH
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA POTENTIALLY DIP
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT SINCE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SNOWBELT
REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LARGELY MAINTAIN INFLUENCE AS IT DRIFTS EAST ON
MONDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL QUITE LOW FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS. HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS (30 TO 50 PERCENT) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
BUT THERE'S POTENTIAL THAT HIGH PRESSURE COULD PREVENT STEER THE
LOW AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE REFINEMENTS TO
THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, ALTHOUGH TERMINALS FURTHER FROM
THE LAKESHORE ARE BEING IMPACTED LESS. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED AT
LEAST A VCSH FOR MFD TO CLE AND TERMINALS EAST, WITH CLE, YNG,
AND ERI MOST LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTFUL SHOWERS WITH DIMINISHED
CONDITIONS AS LOW AS MVFR. CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA
WILL OVER NEAR THE MVFR THRESHOLD, GENERALLY RANGING FROM
2.5-4KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS ELSEWHERE WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER.
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
00Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN
LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SNOWBELT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS COMING DOWN FROM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT TO A FOOT OR LESS BY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC FROM SUNDAY ONWARD TURNS WINDS
EAST NORTHEAST, INCREASING TO 15-20KTS BY MONDAY AND WAVE HEIGHTS IN
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASINS UP TO 2-5FT THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ006-008-
017>019-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...04/15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...04
MARINE...26
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