183
FXUS61 KCLE 241046
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
646 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY AS WEAK WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED TO THE PRIMARY
SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BUT LIGHT SHOWERS COULD EXTEND AS FAR
WEST AS ERIE/LORAIN COUNTIES IN OHIO AT TIMES. AN ADDITIONAL FEW
TENTHS OF QPF IS EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN ERIE COUNTY PA. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO START DWINDLING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY LIMITED
TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AS FLOW WEAKENS AND STARTS SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE COLD AIRMASS THAT HAS PRODUCED LAKE EFFECT RAIN/CLOUDS HAS
ALSO ALLOWS FOR CHILLY TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN MILDER THAN FORECAST SO FAR DUE TO EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVERAGE AND A LIGHT WIND. FROST FORMATION IS BECOMING
VERY UNLIKELY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE A FEW COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
OHIO (E.G. LIKE KNOX/HOLMES AREA). FOR TONIGHT, COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN, LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN 800MB
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, THE
WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER COULD GRADUALLY ERODE, EXPOSING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO FAVORABLE RADIATION COOLING
CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS). IT'S LIKELY THAT A
FREEZE WARNING AND/OR FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL OHIO, THOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR EAST IT WILL BE NEEDED. COUNTIES
EAST OF I-77 ARE UNLIKELY TO NEED A FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE DUE TO
EXPECTED LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE,
ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER QUEBEC ON MONDAY THOUGH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPED AND PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS EARLY TO MID-WEEK. A FEW OF THAT TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURES (AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
EFFECT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER), BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THERE
TO BE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. QPF
POTENTIAL IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS POINT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWING A PROBABILITY OF >0.5" AT ONLY AROUND 50% AND >1" AT
AROUND 20-30% FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE LIKELY TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ALOFT, WNW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH 12Z/SAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND EVENTUALLY THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, THE
RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TREND SW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH 23Z/FRI. THEREAFTER, OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM THROUGH 12Z/SAT.
PRIMARILY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD LAKE-EFFECT CUMULIFORM CLOUDS
ORIGINATING OVER LAKES MICHIGAN, ST. CLAIR, AND ERIE ARE
EXPECTED TO STREAM SE'WARD OR ESE'WARD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
~21Z/FRI. NOTE: DIURNAL CUMULI WITH BASES NEAR 3.5KFT TO 5KFT
AGL ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER
~21Z/FRI, LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD LAKE-EFFECT CUMULIFORM
CLOUDS, PRIMARILY ORIGINATING OVER LAKES ST. CLAIR AND ERIE,
SHOULD STREAM GENERALLY ESE'WARD OR SE'WARD OVER NE OH, NW PA,
AND VICINITY. LAKE-EFFECT CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE NEAR 3.5KFT TO
6KFT AGL, PRIMARILY. IN ADDITION, PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
LAKE-EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH
12Z/SAT. CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND VISIBILITY
WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND IFR IN THE LAKE-EFFECT PRECIP.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE-EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
PERIODIC NON-VFR SHOULD IMPACT NW PA AND NE OH THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY THEN IMPACT PORTIONS OF NE AND NW OH
LATER SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT TODAY FROM
VERMILION TO RIPLEY. A TROUGH EXITS E'WARD FROM THE LAKE ERIE
REGION TODAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY
WINDS AS STRONG AS 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING EASE TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ACCORDINGLY, WAVES
AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR
LESS BY THIS EARLY EVENING. THUS, PORTIONS OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TEMPORALLY. NOTE: WATERSPOUTS
MAY ACCOMPANY LAKE-EFFECT CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN NY AND VICINITY. W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD VEER GRADUALLY TO NE'ERLY TO
E'ERLY. WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD EXIT GENERALLY NE'WARD THIS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LOW WOBBLES GENERALLY E'WARD
AND THEN NE'WARD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO ATLANTIC WATERS
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND EXTENDS A TROUGH OVER THE LAKE ERIE
REGION. NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DEEPENING LOW AND TROUGH INTERACT WITH THE
DEPARTING RIDGE. WAVES AS LARGE AS 3 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS, BASED ON THE WIND
AND FETCH FORECAST. FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ006-008-
017>019-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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