034
FXUS61 KCLE 241948
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NE OH/NW PA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE LARGELY
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK
IN SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKESHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AS THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS,
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE BROKEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOWBELT REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT
BETWEEN FREEZING/SUB-FREEZING AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM
STARK COUNTY NORTHEAST TO OTTAWA/LUCAS COUNTIES AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH/WEST. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA,
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER NORTH AND
WEST OF THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK
IN MAHONING/PORTAGE/SUMMIT AND POSSIBLY TRUMBULL COUNTIES. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS ON THE
FRINGE OF THE FREEZE WARNING; MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
OR EXPAND THE FREEZE WARNING AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FROST AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED SPOTS WITH FREEZE ARE POSSIBLE AND FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE (ASSUMING THE GROWING SEASON DOESN'T END
TONIGHT).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ATTEMPT TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT GENERALLY THINKING THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR NW OH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OR
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST AND PHASING INTO A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA
DRY. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW TAKES A TRACK THAT RESEMBLES THE LATEST
ECMWF, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OPTED FOR BROAD CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIP INCREASES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT RAIN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR
CLE/CAK AND TERMINALS EAST, MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. FURTHER WEST, EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
GOING CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. CEILINGS
MAINLY FL035-050 FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF WHERE CLOUD COVER
PERSISTS.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE-EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
PERIODIC NON-VFR SHOULD IMPACT NW PA AND NE OH THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY THEN IMPACT PORTIONS OF NE AND NW OH
LATER SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT TODAY FROM
VERMILION TO RIPLEY. A TROUGH EXITS E'WARD FROM THE LAKE ERIE
REGION TODAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY
WINDS AS STRONG AS 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING EASE TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ACCORDINGLY, WAVES
AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR
LESS BY THIS EARLY EVENING. THUS, PORTIONS OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TEMPORALLY. NOTE: WATERSPOUTS
MAY ACCOMPANY LAKE-EFFECT CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN NY AND VICINITY. W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD VEER GRADUALLY TO NE'ERLY TO
E'ERLY. WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD EXIT GENERALLY NE'WARD THIS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LOW WOBBLES GENERALLY E'WARD
AND THEN NE'WARD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO ATLANTIC WATERS
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND EXTENDS A TROUGH OVER THE LAKE ERIE
REGION. NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE DEEPENING LOW AND TROUGH INTERACT WITH THE
DEPARTING RIDGE. WAVES AS LARGE AS 3 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS, BASED ON THE WIND
AND FETCH FORECAST. FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>010-017>020-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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