938
FXUS61 KCLE 242308
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
708 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..00Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NE OH/NW PA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE LARGELY
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK
IN SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKESHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AS THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS,
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE BROKEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOWBELT REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT
BETWEEN FREEZING/SUB-FREEZING AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM
STARK COUNTY NORTHEAST TO OTTAWA/LUCAS COUNTIES AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH/WEST. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA,
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER NORTH AND
WEST OF THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK
IN MAHONING/PORTAGE/SUMMIT AND POSSIBLY TRUMBULL COUNTIES. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS ON THE
FRINGE OF THE FREEZE WARNING; MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
OR EXPAND THE FREEZE WARNING AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FROST AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED SPOTS WITH FREEZE ARE POSSIBLE AND FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE (ASSUMING THE GROWING SEASON DOESN'T END
TONIGHT).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ATTEMPT TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT GENERALLY THINKING THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR NW OH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OR
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST AND PHASING INTO A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA
DRY. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW TAKES A TRACK THAT RESEMBLES THE LATEST
ECMWF, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OPTED FOR BROAD CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIP INCREASES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR TAF SITES OVER FAR NEOH AND NWPA. CEILINGS FROM THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000-6000 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT REGION BUT DO HAVE
ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION IN THE ERI OR YNG TAF AT THIS TIME.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT FOR NWOH TONIGHT BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL HANG ON FOR NEOH AND NWPA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH TONIGHT, FALLING
BELOW 10KTS BY 06Z, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING ACCORDINGLY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER QUEBEC, EAST NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO
10-20KTS SUNDAY NIGHT, AND UP TO 20-30KTS MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
PEAKING AT 4-7FT IN THE OPEN WATER ZONES, AND BACK TO 10-20KTS FOR
MIDWEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>010-017>020-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...77
MARINE...26
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