513
FXUS61 KCLE 250534
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NE OH/NW PA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE LARGELY
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK
IN SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKESHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AS THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS,
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE BROKEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOWBELT REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT
BETWEEN FREEZING/SUB-FREEZING AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM
STARK COUNTY NORTHEAST TO OTTAWA/LUCAS COUNTIES AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH/WEST. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA,
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER NORTH AND
WEST OF THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK
IN MAHONING/PORTAGE/SUMMIT AND POSSIBLY TRUMBULL COUNTIES. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CLOUD COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS ON THE
FRINGE OF THE FREEZE WARNING; MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
OR EXPAND THE FREEZE WARNING AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FROST AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED SPOTS WITH FREEZE ARE POSSIBLE AND FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE (ASSUMING THE GROWING SEASON DOESN'T END
TONIGHT).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND
GENERALLY EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ATTEMPT TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT GENERALLY THINKING THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR NW OH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OR
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST AND PHASING INTO A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA
DRY. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW TAKES A TRACK THAT RESEMBLES THE LATEST
ECMWF, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OPTED FOR BROAD CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIP INCREASES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ALOFT, W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE ERIE
REGION AND UPPER OH VALLEY, INCLUDING OUR AREA, THROUGH 06Z/SUN.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW, A RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ~18Z/SAT. THEREAFTER, A
TROUGH OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH 06Z/SUN. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE TROUGH AXIS AND TRAVERSE OUR AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR REGION AS THE
EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS E'WARD FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD THE ON/QC BORDER THROUGH 06Z/SUN. A
WEAK MSLP GRADIENT ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS TO BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER AND VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI
WITH BASES NEAR 3.5KFT TO 5KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW PA
AND NORTHERN OH THROUGH 06Z/SUN AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER AND
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE VEERS SLOWLY FROM NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY TO
NE'ERLY. THESE STRATOCUMULI WILL YIELD PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS
AND SHOULD PRODUCE PERIODIC, ISOLATED, AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY AT/NEAR KERI. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO THE SUB-VFR RANGE. NOTE: DIURNAL CUMULI WITH BASES
NEAR 3.5KFT TO 5KFT AGL ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA.
OUTLOOK...LIGHT, PERIODIC, AND ISOLATED LAKE-EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY STREAM GENERALLY S'WARD OR SW'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE
AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF NW PA AND NORTHERN OH SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO THE SUB-VFR RANGE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH TONIGHT, FALLING
BELOW 10KTS BY 06Z, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING ACCORDINGLY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER QUEBEC, EAST NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO
10-20KTS SUNDAY NIGHT, AND UP TO 20-30KTS MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
PEAKING AT 4-7FT IN THE OPEN WATER ZONES, AND BACK TO 10-20KTS FOR
MIDWEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>010-
017>020-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...26
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