346
FXUS61 KCLE 250650
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
250 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR ALOFT ALOFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM AND WINDS
DISSIPATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT, WITH FLOW TURNING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP AND BRIEFLY MOVE INLAND
TO THE TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, NORTHEAST FLOW COULD SHIFT ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS SANDUSKY-FREMONT-TIFFIN AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AS DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDS IN.
A BELOW NORMAL AIRMASS REMAINS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES C BELOW NORMAL AND AROUND THE
25TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. SO FAR, THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNING AREA IS WORKING OUT QUITE WELL AS SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS
STATIONS HAVE COOLED DOWN TO AROUND 32-33 DEGREES WHERE CLOUD
COVER HAS EXPECTEDLY CLEARED. WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN (GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-77), TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 40.
FOR TONIGHT, WE'RE LIKELY TO NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES, LIKELY INCLUDING THE SAME COUNTIES AS THIS MORNING,
IN ADDITION TO A FEW MORE COUNTIES A BIT FARTHER EAST. IT'S
UNCERTAIN FAR EAST WE'LL NEED TO GO WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO
BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AS ALLUDED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, CHILLY TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THERE COULD
BE A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT, ASSUMING THE GROWING SEASON HASN'T BEEN
ENDED. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY (AND BEYOND - MORE ON THAT BELOW).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE
LARGER-SCALE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH, BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS
IT DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN EAST TOWARDS EASTERN TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ENS/CMCE SHOW A RELATIVELY EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF PRECIPITATION BY THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE GEFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE TO POSSIBLY EVEN NO PRECIPITATION.
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 30-40% RANGE DUE
TO MODEL SPREAD, AND IN GENERAL IS A BIT LOWER COMPARES TO
FORECASTS FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EITHER WAY, ALL OF THESE
TRAJECTORIES KEEP US IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S
(THOUGH A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKESHORE). CONDITIONS TEND TO
BECOME SHOWERY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, FAVORING
THE TYPICAL AREAS IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ALOFT, W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE ERIE
REGION AND UPPER OH VALLEY, INCLUDING OUR AREA, THROUGH 06Z/SUN.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW, A RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ~18Z/SAT. THEREAFTER, A
TROUGH OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH 06Z/SUN. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE TROUGH AXIS AND TRAVERSE OUR AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR REGION AS THE
EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS E'WARD FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD THE ON/QC BORDER THROUGH 06Z/SUN. A
WEAK MSLP GRADIENT ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS TO BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER AND VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI
WITH BASES NEAR 3.5KFT TO 5KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT NW PA
AND NORTHERN OH THROUGH 06Z/SUN AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER AND
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE VEERS SLOWLY FROM NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY TO
NE'ERLY. THESE STRATOCUMULI WILL YIELD PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS
AND SHOULD PRODUCE PERIODIC, ISOLATED, AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY AT/NEAR KERI. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO THE SUB-VFR RANGE. NOTE: DIURNAL CUMULI WITH BASES
NEAR 3.5KFT TO 5KFT AGL ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA.
OUTLOOK...LIGHT, PERIODIC, AND ISOLATED LAKE-EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY STREAM GENERALLY S'WARD OR SW'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE
AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF NW PA AND NORTHERN OH SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO THE SUB-VFR RANGE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH TONIGHT, FALLING
BELOW 10KTS BY 06Z, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING ACCORDINGLY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER QUEBEC, EAST NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO
10-20KTS SUNDAY NIGHT, AND UP TO 20-30KTS MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
PEAKING AT 4-7FT IN THE OPEN WATER ZONES, AND BACK TO 10-20KTS FOR
MIDWEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>010-
017>020-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...26
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