817
FXUS61 KCLE 251756
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
156 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR ALOFT ALOFT CONTINUES TO ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM AND WINDS
DISSIPATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT, WITH FLOW TURNING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP AND BRIEFLY MOVE INLAND
TO THE TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER, NORTHEAST FLOW COULD SHIFT ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS SANDUSKY-FREMONT-TIFFIN AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AS DRY AIR ALOFT BUILDS IN.
A BELOW NORMAL AIRMASS REMAINS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES C BELOW NORMAL AND AROUND THE
25TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. SO FAR, THE CURRENT FREEZE
WARNING AREA IS WORKING OUT QUITE WELL AS SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS
STATIONS HAVE COOLED DOWN TO AROUND 32-33 DEGREES WHERE CLOUD
COVER HAS EXPECTEDLY CLEARED. WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN (GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-77), TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 40.
FOR TONIGHT, WE'RE LIKELY TO NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES, LIKELY INCLUDING THE SAME COUNTIES AS THIS MORNING,
IN ADDITION TO A FEW MORE COUNTIES A BIT FARTHER EAST. IT'S
UNCERTAIN FAR EAST WE'LL NEED TO GO WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO
BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AS ALLUDED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, CHILLY TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THERE COULD
BE A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT, ASSUMING THE GROWING SEASON HASN'T BEEN
ENDED. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY (AND BEYOND - MORE ON THAT BELOW).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE
LARGER-SCALE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH, BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS
IT DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN EAST TOWARDS EASTERN TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ENS/CMCE SHOW A RELATIVELY EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF PRECIPITATION BY THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE GEFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE TO POSSIBLY EVEN NO PRECIPITATION.
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 30-40% RANGE DUE
TO MODEL SPREAD, AND IN GENERAL IS A BIT LOWER COMPARES TO
FORECASTS FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EITHER WAY, ALL OF THESE
TRAJECTORIES KEEP US IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S
(THOUGH A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKESHORE). CONDITIONS TEND TO
BECOME SHOWERY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, FAVORING
THE TYPICAL AREAS IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT ERI. WE ARE STARTING THE PERIOD WITH VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUDINESS, RANGING FROM HIGH CLOUDS NEAR 20K FEET ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 3.5-5K FEET
OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE, INCLUDING AT ERI. THERE ARE ALSO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF ERI BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THEM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL, WITH THE EXPECTATION
BEING TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT ERI
THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND STRATOCUMULUS OFF LAKE ERIE MAY TRY TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT, BECOMING BROKEN AT CLE TOWARDS 10Z.
MODELS INDICATE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
OF ERI AFTER 03Z AND TOWARDS CLE BETWEEN 10-15Z. ERI COULD ALSO
HAVE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 06Z.
MANY TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS TEND TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY
AT 5-10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
A RIDGE IMPACTS LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SOUTHWESTERN QC. ACCORDINGLY, W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 15 KNOTS VEER GRADUALLY TO NE'ERLY BY SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING
AS WAVES REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS. DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD EXIT GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS A LOW WOBBLES GENERALLY E'WARD AND THEN
NE'WARD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO ATLANTIC WATERS WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. SIMULTANEOUSLY,
A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT LAKE
ERIE. IN ADDITION, ON WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
SHOULD CONGEAL WITH A SEPARATE RIDGE AS THE LATTER ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND
ATTENDANT TROUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING, NE'ERLY TO
E'ERLY WINDS SHOULD FRESHEN TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER LAKE
ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN FRESHEN FURTHER TO AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACCORDINGLY, WAVES SHOULD
BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND BUILD FURTHER
TO AS LARGE AS 4 TO 8 FEET ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
LARGEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
BASINS, BASED ON THE WIND AND FETCH FORECAST. FORECAST TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
OHZ028>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...10
MARINE...JASZKA
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