565
FXUS61 KCLE 251913
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
313 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FORM ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVE EAST
INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOWING ENDING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION AND FLOW WEAKENS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST, LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY LEADING TO THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS STARTING UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL OHIO WEST TO FREMONT. DRY AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AND
WILL CUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW
30S TO UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED MAINLY FOR THE US 30 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. THE CAVEAT WITH
THIS IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL THERE BE. BETWEEN THE LOW, LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND THE HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH, THERE
WILL BE A THIN AREA THAT COULD COOL EFFECTIVELY ENOUGH TO FREEZE. IF
THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE WIDESPREAD THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP
ENOUGH TO FREEZE. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S, AND AROUND 40 NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE AMPLE CLEARING WITH THE INFLUX OF
DRY AIR, SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY DROP TO AROUND
AND BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN THE GROWING SEASON
HASN'T ENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS FREEZE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TO START NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
AND A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BREAK OFF FROM LARGER TROUGH AND PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL AND ARE IN AGREEMENT
DURING THIS MODEL RUN AS IT EVOLVES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL
BECOME MORE OF A IMPACT DURING THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL TREND A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL PROGRESS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD STARTING MID-WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT
BECOMES SEPARATED IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE GFS HAS THE LOW WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, WHICH IF THAT IS
THE CASE, THEN WE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF BOTH HAVE THE SYSTEM WITH A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AND A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS, THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE
COOLER AND WITH THE WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL FORM ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, EXCEPT
PERHAPS AT ERI. WE ARE STARTING THE PERIOD WITH VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUDINESS, RANGING FROM HIGH CLOUDS NEAR 20K FEET ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO WITH A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 3.5-5K FEET
OFF THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE, INCLUDING AT ERI. THERE ARE ALSO
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF ERI BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THEM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL, WITH THE EXPECTATION
BEING TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT ERI
THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND STRATOCUMULUS OFF LAKE ERIE MAY TRY TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT, BECOMING BROKEN AT CLE TOWARDS 10Z.
MODELS INDICATE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
OF ERI AFTER 03Z AND TOWARDS CLE BETWEEN 10-15Z. ERI COULD ALSO
HAVE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 06Z.
MANY TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS TEND TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY
AT 5-10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS WITH GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHOP DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ON MONDAY WE ENTER A PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER QUEBEC AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, LEADING TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MET ON THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AND
WAVES BUILD IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE MAINTAIN INCREASED EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS FINALLY BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
OHZ028>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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