205
FXUS61 KCLE 260541
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FORM ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVE EAST
INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
7:50 PM EDT SATURDAY UPDATE:
THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL REMAINS TRICKY TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER CLOUDS TO LIMIT COOLING AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/
SOUTHWEST, TO GO ALONG WITH VERY WEAK ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE LAKE. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE DECREASED NOTABLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AND GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THEY WON'T FILL BACK IN...
HOWEVER, WE MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER SPREAD INTO OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE
CURRENTLY OUT OVER THE LAKE, WITH SOME STRATUS PERSISTING IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. FLOW WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT (AFTER 6Z)
BEHIND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, WHICH LIKELY WILL PUSH LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS SOUTH OFF THE LAKE. HOW QUICKLY THEY SPREAD INLAND IS A
QUESTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME COUNTIES CURRENTLY NOT UNDER THE
FREEZE WARNING (PARTICULARLY MEDINA/SUMMIT/PORTAGE AND MAYBE TRUMBULL)
TAKE UNTIL CLOSE TO DAWN FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN, WHICH
WOULD IMPLY GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF
SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS, ANOTHER POTENTIAL WRENCH IN THIS AREA IS
SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING EVIDENT ON 850MB AND 925MB MODEL
WIND/RH/TEMP FIELDS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OH, WHICH MAY
FILL BACK IN WITH AT LEAST SOME STRATUS CLOUDS AT ANY TIME.
ULTIMATELY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND
COVERAGE OF FROST WORDING IN THE FORECAST (RAISED LOWS SLIGHTLY IN OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO MORE CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST, AND
LOWERED LOWS AND BEEFED UP FROST COVERAGE SLIGHTLY IN THE MEDINA-
TRUMBULL COUNTY CORRIDOR). STRONGLY CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE FREEZE
WARNING INTO THAT CORRIDOR, THOUGH ULTIMATELY WAS NOT QUITE CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES TO A HEADLINE JUST A FEW HOURS AFTER WE
INITIALLY HOISTED IT. WITH THAT SAID, IF ANYONE OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE STILL HAS SENSITIVE VEGETATION, THEY SHOULD TAKE
IT INSIDE OR COVER IT TONIGHT OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION WITH THIS
CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE. NOTE THAT PER AN EARLIER PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT, WE HAVE ENDED THE GROWING SEASON (MEANING NO ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS THIS FALL) IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST OHIO.
WE ARE EXPECTING SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO START RE-DEVELOPING LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY ALONG AND JUST OFF THE
SHORELINE NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND AS LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE INCREASES
OVERNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST,
SLIGHTLY INLAND INTO THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT AND THEN TOWARDS THE
LAKESHORE BETWEEN CLEVELAND AND SANDUSKY, INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SHIFTS THE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY. THIS IS
REPRESENTED WELL IN THE GOING POP/SKY/QPF FORECAST, MEANING NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE OUTSIDE OF THE MINOR LOW TEMP/FROST CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOWING ENDING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION AND FLOW WEAKENS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST, LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY LEADING TO THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS STARTING UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL OHIO WEST TO FREMONT. DRY AIR MOVES IN THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AND
WILL CUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW
30S TO UPPER 20S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED MAINLY FOR THE US 30 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. THE CAVEAT WITH
THIS IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL THERE BE. BETWEEN THE LOW, LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND THE HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH, THERE
WILL BE A THIN AREA THAT COULD COOL EFFECTIVELY ENOUGH TO FREEZE. IF
THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE WIDESPREAD THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP
ENOUGH TO FREEZE. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S, AND AROUND 40 NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE AMPLE CLEARING WITH THE INFLUX OF
DRY AIR, SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY DROP TO AROUND
AND BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN THE GROWING SEASON
HASN'T ENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS FREEZE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TO START NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
AND A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BREAK OFF FROM LARGER TROUGH AND PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL AND ARE IN AGREEMENT
DURING THIS MODEL RUN AS IT EVOLVES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL
BECOME MORE OF A IMPACT DURING THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE SHORT TERM WILL TREND A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL PROGRESS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD STARTING MID-WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT
BECOMES SEPARATED IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE GFS HAS THE LOW WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, WHICH IF THAT IS
THE CASE, THEN WE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF BOTH HAVE THE SYSTEM WITH A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AND A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS, THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE
COOLER AND WITH THE WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL FORM ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ALOFT, WNW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW VEERS GRADUALLY TO MAINLY N'ERLY
OVER OUR REGION AS A TROUGH EXITS E'WARD AND A RIDGE BUILDS FROM
NEAR THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH 06Z/MON. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E'WARD FROM NEAR
SOUTHERN JAMES BAY AND GEORGIAN BAY TOWARD WESTERN QUEBEC AND
VICINITY. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY
NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT SHOULD TEND TO BE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
OR CALM BEFORE ~15Z/SUN AND AFTER ~02Z/MON.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI WITH BASES NEAR
3KFT TO 5KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM SLOWLY
S'WARD OR SW'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH ~21Z/SUN AND THEN
STREAM SLOWLY SW'WARD OR W'WARD FROM THE LAKE THROUGH 06Z/MON AS
WEAK MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS. ISOLATED, PERIODIC, AND LIGHT
LAKE-EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE CLOUDS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE WITH THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER AND PRIMARILY VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NOTE: RADIATION MIST WITH MVFR VISIBILITY MAY FORM IN INTERIOR
NE OH, INCLUDING AT/NEAR KCAK AND KYNG, BETWEEN ~07Z/SUN AND
~13Z/SUN. ADDITIONAL NOTE: SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULI
WITH BASES NEAR 5KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
OH AND NW PA LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS WITH GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHOP DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ON MONDAY WE ENTER A PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER QUEBEC AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, LEADING TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MET ON THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AND
WAVES BUILD IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE MAINTAIN INCREASED EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS FINALLY BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ028>033-
036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23/SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...10
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