994
FXUS61 KCLE 260707
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
307 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL FORM ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY. A TROUGH MAY DEVELOP AND LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MADE ITS WAY NORTH, CENTERED OVER THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER, THOUGH IT EXPANDS TO COVER MUCH OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA THE MINIMAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A LAND
BREEZE HAS RESULTED IN A BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
LAKE ERIE, WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
HUGGING THE LAKESHORE FROM ERIE, PA TO AS FAR WEST AS SANDUSKY,
OH THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, THESE CALM WINDS AND COOLER AIRMASS
AS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH LOWS
DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-76 WHERE A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY
DISRUPTED FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, THOUGH THE
EXPECTATION IS TO DISSIPATE AND DIVE SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITHIN CLEAR
CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OHIO.
ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NORTH OF
I-76/US-224 THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR TOLEDO TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING, MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. ASIDE FROM A VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. SHOULD SEE FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN
ENDED. NOTE, NWS CLEVELAND LOCALLY ENDS THE GROWING SEASON AND
STOPS ISSUING FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS WHERE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES 32 OR LOWER) HAS OCCURRED.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ENDED ON NOVEMBER 1ST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, INFLUENCING OUR LOCAL WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES, AND NORTHEAST
WINDS. ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THOUGH IT BECOMES A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSE LOW BREAKS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AT THE
BROADER SUITE OF AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE ARE TWO TRACKS FOR THE UPPER-LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: 1. THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION TAKES IT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS TN/AL AREA AND THEN BACK
NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS SOLUTION IS
FAVORED BY THE GEFS ANS ONLY RESULT IN A GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. 2. THE NORTHERN SOLUTION TAKES IT DOWN TO TN/KY AREA BUT
THEN TAKES IT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND THEN TO
ONTARIO. THIS IS FAVORED BY ENS/CMCE AND WOULD BRING AND
AREAWIDE SOAKING RAIN, WITH QPF POSSIBLY EXCEEDING ONE INCH.
CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 40-60% CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH GIVEN THE TRENDS OVER
THE LATEST FEW CYCLES (DRIVEN BY THE ENS/CMCE), WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THESE POPS NOTICEABLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. LAKE EFFECT RAIN
IS LIKELY DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO
EXPECT RAINY WEATHER TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ALOFT, WNW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW VEERS GRADUALLY TO MAINLY N'ERLY
OVER OUR REGION AS A TROUGH EXITS E'WARD AND A RIDGE BUILDS FROM
NEAR THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH 06Z/MON. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E'WARD FROM NEAR
SOUTHERN JAMES BAY AND GEORGIAN BAY TOWARD WESTERN QUEBEC AND
VICINITY. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY
NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT SHOULD TEND TO BE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
OR CALM BEFORE ~15Z/SUN AND AFTER ~02Z/MON.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI WITH BASES NEAR
3KFT TO 5KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM SLOWLY
S'WARD OR SW'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH ~21Z/SUN AND THEN
STREAM SLOWLY SW'WARD OR W'WARD FROM THE LAKE THROUGH 06Z/MON AS
WEAK MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS. ISOLATED, PERIODIC, AND LIGHT
LAKE-EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE CLOUDS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE WITH THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER AND PRIMARILY VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NOTE: RADIATION MIST WITH MVFR VISIBILITY MAY FORM IN INTERIOR
NE OH, INCLUDING AT/NEAR KCAK AND KYNG, BETWEEN ~07Z/SUN AND
~13Z/SUN. ADDITIONAL NOTE: SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULI
WITH BASES NEAR 5KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
OH AND NW PA LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS WITH GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHOP DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ON MONDAY WE ENTER A PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER QUEBEC AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, LEADING TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MET ON THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AND
WAVES BUILD IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE MAINTAIN INCREASED EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS FINALLY BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ028>033-
036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...10
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