805
FXUS61 KCLE 261739
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
139 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL FORM ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY. A TROUGH MAY DEVELOP AND LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MADE ITS WAY NORTH, CENTERED OVER THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER, THOUGH IT EXPANDS TO COVER MUCH OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA THE MINIMAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A LAND
BREEZE HAS RESULTED IN A BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
LAKE ERIE, WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
HUGGING THE LAKESHORE FROM ERIE, PA TO AS FAR WEST AS SANDUSKY,
OH THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, THESE CALM WINDS AND COOLER AIRMASS
AS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH LOWS
DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-76 WHERE A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY
DISRUPTED FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, THOUGH THE
EXPECTATION IS TO DISSIPATE AND DIVE SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITHIN CLEAR
CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OHIO.
ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NORTH OF
I-76/US-224 THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR TOLEDO TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING, MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. ASIDE FROM A VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. SHOULD SEE FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN
ENDED. NOTE, NWS CLEVELAND LOCALLY ENDS THE GROWING SEASON AND
STOPS ISSUING FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS WHERE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE (TEMPERATURES 32 OR LOWER) HAS OCCURRED.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ENDED ON NOVEMBER 1ST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, INFLUENCING OUR LOCAL WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES, AND NORTHEAST
WINDS. ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THOUGH IT BECOMES A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSE LOW BREAKS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AT THE
BROADER SUITE OF AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE ARE TWO TRACKS FOR THE UPPER-LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: 1. THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION TAKES IT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS TN/AL AREA AND THEN BACK
NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS SOLUTION IS
FAVORED BY THE GEFS ANS ONLY RESULT IN A GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. 2. THE NORTHERN SOLUTION TAKES IT DOWN TO TN/KY AREA BUT
THEN TAKES IT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND THEN TO
ONTARIO. THIS IS FAVORED BY ENS/CMCE AND WOULD BRING AND
AREAWIDE SOAKING RAIN, WITH QPF POSSIBLY EXCEEDING ONE INCH.
CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 40-60% CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH GIVEN THE TRENDS OVER
THE LATEST FEW CYCLES (DRIVEN BY THE ENS/CMCE), WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THESE POPS NOTICEABLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. LAKE EFFECT RAIN
IS LIKELY DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO
EXPECT RAINY WEATHER TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC DOMINATING THE REGION WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS. FLAT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND FL035, AND A FEW HOURS OF
CEILINGS FL035-045 IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH AROUND
22Z. A WEAK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE COULD
BRING CLOUDS TO TOL IN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ON THIS FOR THIS ISSUANCE AND WILL NEED TO REVISIT FOR
THE 00Z TAF RUN. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS AT THE SURFACE.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE ON/QC BORDER
AREA TO THE LAKE ERIE REGION TODAY. PRIMARILY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A SE'ERLY TO
S'ERLY LAND BREEZE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE WILL
DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING. NOTE: A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS
EXISTS WITH LAKE-EFFECT CUMULIFORM CLOUDS ALONG THE LAND BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OH, PA, AND SOUTHWESTERN NY.
WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
COMPARED TO 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO, THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW EXACTLY THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES AND VICINITY TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS THURSDAY. HOWEVER, IN GENERAL, THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE SHOULD EXIT SLOWLY TOWARD QUEBEC AND VICINITY AS A TROUGH
OVERSPREADS THE LAKE ERIE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN, OVERALL. ACCORDINGLY,
MAINLY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY WINDS FRESHEN TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5 FEET. BASED
ON FORECAST WINDS AND FETCH, THE LARGEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE OPEN U.S. WATERS OF THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
BASINS. ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES AS LARGE AS 4 TO 8 FEET
ARE EXPECTED. THE LARGEST WAVES ARE FORECAST IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BASINS. ON THURSDAY, N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 15
TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES AS LARGE AS 4 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THE
LARGEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BASIN BASED ON FORECAST
WINDS AND FETCH. FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
OHZ011-020-021-031-038.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
OHZ013-014-022-023-032-033.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...26
MARINE...JASZKA
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