513
FXUS61 KCLE 261901
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
301 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND WILL INFLUENCE
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS WEEK AND LINGER
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM AS IT BUILDS OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. OUTSIDE OF FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING IN EASTERN TO NORTHERN OHIO, SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ONLY FEATURE TO NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL
BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZE IS HIGHER IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR
EASTERN OHIO AS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FROM GEAUGA DOWN THROUGH STARK COUNTIES
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS WELL, BUT THERE WILL BE ELEVATED WINDS
AROUND 5-7 MPH WHICH MAY PREVENT A FROST/FREEZE FROM FORMING. THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME THAT CAN FORM IN SHELTERED AREAS THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE FURTHER WEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO AND A
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM CUYAHOGA COUNTY DOWN THROUGH HOLMES
COUNTY. AGAIN, THE CAVEAT WILL BE THE ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION PREVENTING FROST FORMATION. WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WITH THE LOCAL GROWING SEASON
ENDING ON NOVEMBER 1ST, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST ISSUANCE OF
FROST/FREEZE THIS SEASON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WILL BUILD OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS IT
BREAKS APART FROM A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THIS UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AS IT DEVELOPS
OVER THE SHORT TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A DEEPER LOW WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK
AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH KEPT A NORTHEASTERLY LOW TRACK AFTER IT ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND HAVEN'T BEEN AS DEEP AS THE GFS. THOUGH, THE RECENT 12Z RUNS OF
EACH MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT. WILL
HAVE MORE ON THE LOCAL IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SHORT TERM, A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM AND MOVE NORTHEAST AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL OUTCOME, THERE WILL BE A WIDE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY. POPS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND CURRENTLY ARE
60-80% AT SOME POINT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. BEHIND THE LOW
AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, THERE WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN AND WILL LIKELY FORM LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORMAL SNOWBELT AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE REST OF THE WEEK, MOST LIKELY A BIT COOLER WITH THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC DOMINATING THE REGION WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS. FLAT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND FL035, AND A FEW HOURS OF
CEILINGS FL035-045 IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH AROUND
22Z. A WEAK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE COULD
BRING CLOUDS TO TOL IN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ON THIS FOR THIS ISSUANCE AND WILL NEED TO REVISIT FOR
THE 00Z TAF RUN. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS AT THE SURFACE.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE ON/QC BORDER
AREA TO THE LAKE ERIE REGION TODAY. PRIMARILY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A SE'ERLY TO
S'ERLY LAND BREEZE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE WILL
DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING. NOTE: A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS
EXISTS WITH LAKE-EFFECT CUMULIFORM CLOUDS ALONG THE LAND BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OH, PA, AND SOUTHWESTERN NY.
WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
COMPARED TO 24 TO 48 HOURS AGO, THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW EXACTLY THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES AND VICINITY TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS THURSDAY. HOWEVER, IN GENERAL, THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE SHOULD EXIT SLOWLY TOWARD QUEBEC AND VICINITY AS A TROUGH
OVERSPREADS THE LAKE ERIE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN, OVERALL. ACCORDINGLY,
MAINLY NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY WINDS FRESHEN TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5 FEET. BASED
ON FORECAST WINDS AND FETCH, THE LARGEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE OPEN U.S. WATERS OF THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
BASINS. ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES AS LARGE AS 4 TO 8 FEET
ARE EXPECTED. THE LARGEST WAVES ARE FORECAST IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BASINS. ON THURSDAY, N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 15
TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES AS LARGE AS 4 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THE
LARGEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BASIN BASED ON FORECAST
WINDS AND FETCH. FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
OHZ011-020-021-031-038.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
OHZ013-014-022-023-032-033.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...26
MARINE...JASZKA
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