513
FXUS61 KCLE 270518
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
118 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND WILL INFLUENCE
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS WEEK AND LINGER
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM AS IT BUILDS OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. OUTSIDE OF FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING IN EASTERN TO NORTHERN OHIO, SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ONLY FEATURE TO NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL
BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZE IS HIGHER IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR
EASTERN OHIO AS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FROM GEAUGA DOWN THROUGH STARK COUNTIES
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS WELL, BUT THERE WILL BE ELEVATED WINDS
AROUND 5-7 MPH WHICH MAY PREVENT A FROST/FREEZE FROM FORMING. THERE
STILL WILL BE SOME THAT CAN FORM IN SHELTERED AREAS THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE FURTHER WEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO AND A
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM CUYAHOGA COUNTY DOWN THROUGH HOLMES
COUNTY. AGAIN, THE CAVEAT WILL BE THE ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION PREVENTING FROST FORMATION. WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WITH THE LOCAL GROWING SEASON
ENDING ON NOVEMBER 1ST, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST ISSUANCE OF
FROST/FREEZE THIS SEASON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WILL BUILD OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS IT
BREAKS APART FROM A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THIS UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AS IT DEVELOPS
OVER THE SHORT TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A DEEPER LOW WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK
AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH KEPT A NORTHEASTERLY LOW TRACK AFTER IT ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND HAVEN'T BEEN AS DEEP AS THE GFS. THOUGH, THE RECENT 12Z RUNS OF
EACH MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT. WILL
HAVE MORE ON THE LOCAL IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SHORT TERM, A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM AND MOVE NORTHEAST AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL OUTCOME, THERE WILL BE A WIDE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY. POPS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND CURRENTLY ARE
60-80% AT SOME POINT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. BEHIND THE LOW
AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, THERE WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN AND WILL LIKELY FORM LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORMAL SNOWBELT AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE REST OF THE WEEK, MOST LIKELY A BIT COOLER WITH THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS
STRENGTHEN TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OHIO. WINDS 6-10 KNOTS AND BECOME
WESTERLY AFTER DARK TONIGHT. WINDS MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AT KERI WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED WITH AREAWIDE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
10:00 PM UPDATE:
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A PERIOD OF ELEVATED (A PERIOD
OF 20-25KT) EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL LAST LONGEST WEST OF WILLOWICK, RAMPING
UP EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY (ADVISORY KICKS IN AT 2 PM WEST
OF WILLOWICK) AND TAKING UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY TO SHIFT A BIT MORE OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN TO <20KT. WAVES
WILL ALSO BE LARGEST WEST OF WILLOWICK, UP TO 7FEET MONDAY
EVENING AT PEAK. WINDS WILL LAST A SHORTER DURATION TO THE EAST,
RAMPING UP TO 20-25KT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON (ADVISORY KICKS IN
AT 4 PM EAST OF WILLOWICK) AND SHIFTING MORE OFFSHORE AND
DIMINISHING TO UNDER 20KT MONDAY NIGHT. AM PRETTY CONFIDENT IN
THE 12 AM TUESDAY EXPIRATION EAST OF WILLOWICK. TO THE WEST, RAN
THE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY. THIS IS CHANGEABLE, AS SOME
MODELS DIMINISH WINDS QUICKER THAN OTHERS. AS MENTIONED BELOW,
IT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED WEEK AND ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED, POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY AS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LAKE ERIE WILL BE IN PERPETUAL EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LARGELY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATER THIS WEEK
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE TWO SEPARATE
PERIODS OF WIND MAXIMA, THE FIRST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHERE
WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATER ZONES WILL BE 20-25KTS SUSTAINED.
WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE OPEN WATERS WILL BE 4-7FT IN THIS PERIOD,
BUT THE NEARSHORE ZONES WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY SLIGHTLY
OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE WINDS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND, WITH
2-5FT WAVES EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. LATER IN THE WEEK, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WINDS, AFTER EASING TO 10-20KTS BRIEFLY
TUESDAY, WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-30KTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND WAVE HEIGHTS BACK TO 5-8FT FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN
OPEN WATER ZONES AND 3-6FT FOR THE WESTERN BASIN WITH SOME
PROTECTION FROM THE ISLANDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
25-35KTS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN WHERE WAVES COULD PUSH 7-10FT.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL LOW END
GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010-013-014-
020>023-030>033-038.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ011-012-089.
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR LEZ147>149.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...26/SULLIVAN
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