508
FXUS61 KCLE 270753
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM QUEBEC AND
VICINITY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT, A TROUGH SHOULD
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS TROUGH SHOULD
LINGER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THIS SATURDAY. ALSO DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME, A PRIMARY LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN DEEPEN, OVERALL, AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL QUEBEC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE AXIS OF A FAIRLY NARROW MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY AND AT THE
SURFACE, THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC
AND EXTEND SSW'WARD INTO OUR REGION. FAIR WEATHER AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE, STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA. NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY SURFACE WINDS PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NW PA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK,
NET CAA AT/NEAR THE SURFACE. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
MAINLY THE MID 50'S TO NEAR 60F DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TODAY AND TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 20'S TO MID 30'S IN INTERIOR NORTHERN OH AND NW PA,
WHILE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30'S TO MID 40'S ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
NEAR ~58F LAKE ERIE AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ANOTHER SET OF
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE DAY
SHIFT FOR APPLICABLE FORECAST ZONES IF THE END OF THE GROWING
SEASON HAS YET TO BE DECLARED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD RETREAT
N'WARD AND NE'WARD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS A TROUGH
SHIFTS GENERALLY E'WARD AND THEN NE'WARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST UNITED STATES, AND VICINITY,
INCLUDING OUR CWA. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A POTENT JET STREAK IS
EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS THE JET STREAK
TRANSLATES FROM THE THE GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTH- CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN CANADA. DIVERGENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL JET STREAK, AND ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/MSLP FALLS
SHOULD ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NE'WARD OVER THE LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DEEPEN FURTHER AS THE LOW
WOBBLES GENERALLY NE'WARD IN VICINITY OF THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD SOUTHERN QC ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY, A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER OVER NORTHERN OH AND NW PA THROUGH
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW, OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM TO ENE'ERLY
TO WNW'ERLY DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WHICH WILL ALLOW OUR
REGION TO REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY, OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20'S TO UPPER 30'S IN INTERIOR
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, WHILE LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30'S TO MID 40'S ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR
LAKE ERIE. WEDNESDAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50'S AND BE FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30'S TO MID 40'S AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
REACH ONLY THE UPPER 40'S TO LOWER 50'S ON THURSDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30'S TO LOWER 40'S
AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT, INCLUDING TROWAL, OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT WHILE TAPPING INTO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN GULF
STREAM. ACCORDINGLY, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS WILL SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN.
DURING THAT TIME FRAME, ENE'ERLY SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
NET COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION MEAN IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
PRECIP TO OVERCOME A RATHER DRY ANTECEDENT LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN AND REACH THE SURFACE VIA THE WET-BULB EFFECT. ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT, INCLUDING TROWAL,
UNDERGOING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
IMPACT OUR REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY TO HEAVY AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE FOLLOWING: THE RELEASE OF WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY VIA
FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST ASCENT IN THE TROWAL;
LAKE-ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP VIA THE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS AND AT
LEAST WEAK LAKE-INDUCED CAPE AMIDST A SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST
LOW/MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER THE ~14C LAKE. ANY LAKE-
ENHANCED PRECIP SHOULD STREAM GENERALLY SW'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AMIDST NE'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, LAKE-ENHANCED PRECIP SHOULD
EVENTUALLY STREAM GENERALLY S'WARD AND THEN SE'WARD FROM THE
LAKE AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO N'ERLY AND THEN TO NW'ERLY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, THE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT NE'WARD FROM
OUR REGION ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY AND VICINITY. AT THE
SURFACE, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW SHOULD WOBBLE NE'WARD AND AWAY
FROM SOUTHERN QC, BUT A WEAK AND TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD LINGER
OVER OUR REGION DUE TO THE EXPANSION OF RELATIVELY-WARM,
LAKE-MODIFIED AIR AS A CHILLY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. WRAP-AROUND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL SHOULD
EXIT NE'WARD FROM OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN OVER
AND GENERALLY EAST OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE-
EFFECT RAIN (LER) BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUMMETS, YET THE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. DAYTIME HIGHS
SHOULD REACH ONLY THE UPPER 40'S TO LOWER 50'S. LER SHOULD
PERSIST OVER AND GENERALLY EAST OF LAKE ERIE FRIDAY NIGHT AMIDST
A CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, ODDS
FAVOR DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE THE LER AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE
ACCOMPANIES THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH
MAINLY THE MID 30'S TO LOWER 40'S AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, CYCLONIC SW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION AS A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCES E'WARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND MUCH MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT ALSO AFFECT OUR REGION.
ACCORDINGLY, NET SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. LER SHOULD OSCILLATE OVER AND DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AS THE PASSAGE OF EACH SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CAUSES
THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST AIR TO VARY
BETWEEN W'ERLY AND SW'ERLY. OUTSIDE THE LER, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DUE, IN PART TO MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT, PRECEDING THE AXIS OF EACH SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE. DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
40'S TO MID 50'S EACH AFTERNOON. LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE
MID 30'S TO MID 40'S AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. NOTE: THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX-IN WITH RAIN AT THE SURFACE LATER
THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ESSENTIALLY NIL SINCE
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO COLDER THAN -1C TO
-3C AND THE VERTICAL PROFILE OF WET-BULB TEMPERATURE SHOULD
YIELD A FAIRLY-DEEP SURFACE-BASED MELTING LAYER OVER OUR REGION.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS
STRENGTHEN TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OHIO. WINDS 6-10 KNOTS AND BECOME
WESTERLY AFTER DARK TONIGHT. WINDS MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AT KERI WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED WITH AREAWIDE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
10:00 PM UPDATE:
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A PERIOD OF ELEVATED (A PERIOD
OF 20-25KT) EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL LAST LONGEST WEST OF WILLOWICK, RAMPING
UP EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY (ADVISORY KICKS IN AT 2 PM WEST
OF WILLOWICK) AND TAKING UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY TO SHIFT A BIT MORE OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN TO <20KT. WAVES
WILL ALSO BE LARGEST WEST OF WILLOWICK, UP TO 7FEET MONDAY
EVENING AT PEAK. WINDS WILL LAST A SHORTER DURATION TO THE EAST,
RAMPING UP TO 20-25KT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON (ADVISORY KICKS IN
AT 4 PM EAST OF WILLOWICK) AND SHIFTING MORE OFFSHORE AND
DIMINISHING TO UNDER 20KT MONDAY NIGHT. AM PRETTY CONFIDENT IN
THE 12 AM TUESDAY EXPIRATION EAST OF WILLOWICK. TO THE WEST, RAN
THE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY. THIS IS CHANGEABLE, AS SOME
MODELS DIMINISH WINDS QUICKER THAN OTHERS. AS MENTIONED BELOW,
IT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED WEEK AND ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED, POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY AS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LAKE ERIE WILL BE IN PERPETUAL EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LARGELY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATER THIS WEEK
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE TWO SEPARATE
PERIODS OF WIND MAXIMA, THE FIRST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHERE
WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATER ZONES WILL BE 20-25KTS SUSTAINED.
WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE OPEN WATERS WILL BE 4-7FT IN THIS PERIOD,
BUT THE NEARSHORE ZONES WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY SLIGHTLY
OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE WINDS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND, WITH
2-5FT WAVES EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. LATER IN THE WEEK, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WINDS, AFTER EASING TO 10-20KTS BRIEFLY
TUESDAY, WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-30KTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND WAVE HEIGHTS BACK TO 5-8FT FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN
OPEN WATER ZONES AND 3-6FT FOR THE WESTERN BASIN WITH SOME
PROTECTION FROM THE ISLANDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
25-35KTS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN WHERE WAVES COULD PUSH 7-10FT.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL LOW END
GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010-013-014-
020>023-030>033-038.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ011-012-089.
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR LEZ147>149.
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA
NEAR TERM...JASZKA
SHORT TERM...JASZKA
LONG TERM...JASZKA
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...26/SULLIVAN
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