325
FXUS61 KCLE 271857
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
257 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS INTO EASTERN ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY. A TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS WEEK AND
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE STEADY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN WESTERN OHIO AND THE LOW TO MID 30S IN NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN OHIO. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING BELOW
FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG JET STREAK AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL FORM A CUT OFF LOW AS IT
ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENTERING EASTERN CANADA. AT
THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED INFLUX OF DRY AIR WILL HINDER IT UNTIL IT WET BULBS DOWN
THROUGH THE COLUMN. ONCE RAIN BEGINS, IT WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY AND
HEAVY AT TIMES. RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY START TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THERE
WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH LIKELY WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOW BELT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS WITH THURSDAY BEING A TOUCH COOLER WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AND DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND FOR THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR, 850 TEMPERATURES AROUND -2C, MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
WEEKEND AND WITH THE LAKE BEING STILL RELATIVELY WARM AT 12-14C,
WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS TO
BE PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM IN THE PRIMARY SNOW BELT. THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY UNTIL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT, MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND THERE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL
HAVE LITTLE CHANGE DESPITE THE PASSING SURFACE LOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH CIRRUS PERIODICALLY OVERSPREADS
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON, 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 22
KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE EAST OVERNIGHT, 8
TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RETAIN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 22
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY. NON-VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. THIS
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FOR THIS PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL OF WINDS DOWN TO 10-15
KNOTS AS THEY BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
STRENGTHENING BACK TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT'S LIKELY
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD
(AND BEYOND).
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO AROUND 1004 MB AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN POSSIBLY DEEPENING TO SUB-1000MB AS IT CONTINUES TOWARDS
JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AND THEN 25-35 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY,
PRIMARILY NEAR AND EAST OF THE THE ISLANDS. WINDS AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS AND WAVES AS HIGH AS 10 FT MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A REASONABLE
WORST CASE SCENARIO. AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
ONTARIO/QUEBEC, WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN WESTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY TO BE AROUND 25-30 KNOTS, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ147>149.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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