075
FXUS61 KCLE 272337
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
737 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
..00Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS INTO EASTERN ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY. A TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS WEEK AND
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE STEADY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN WESTERN OHIO AND THE LOW TO MID 30S IN NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN OHIO. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING BELOW
FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG JET STREAK AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OVER THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL FORM A CUT OFF LOW AS IT
ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENTERING EASTERN CANADA. AT
THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED INFLUX OF DRY AIR WILL HINDER IT UNTIL IT WET BULBS DOWN
THROUGH THE COLUMN. ONCE RAIN BEGINS, IT WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY AND
HEAVY AT TIMES. RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY START TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THERE
WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH LIKELY WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOW BELT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS WITH THURSDAY BEING A TOUCH COOLER WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AND DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND FOR THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR, 850 TEMPERATURES AROUND -2C, MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
WEEKEND AND WITH THE LAKE BEING STILL RELATIVELY WARM AT 12-14C,
WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS TO
BE PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM IN THE PRIMARY SNOW BELT. THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY UNTIL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT, MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS HERE AND THERE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL
HAVE LITTLE CHANGE DESPITE THE PASSING SURFACE LOW WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID 30S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER FOR THIS MONDAY EVENING'S
TAF UPDATE WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST OR
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS WILL RETURN BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHER GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE AND OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. NON-VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
SNOWBELT REGION OF FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY IN SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC MID-WEEK, THEN DEEPENS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THERE
IS A LOW TO MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR GALES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LAKE ERIE WITH ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF THE
SMALL CRAFT OF TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH AND
SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ELEVATED EASTERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, THEN NORTH AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, REACHING NEAR-GALE AT TIMES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY, INCREASING TO 30 AND POTENTIALLY 35 KNOTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BASIN. ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ147>149.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...77
MARINE...KAHN
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