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FZUS81 KCLE 130426
ICEGL
GREAT LAKES FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 PM EST MON NOV 03 2025
...GREAT LAKES ICE SEASON FOR 2025-2026 EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE
ICE COVER...
IN A SUMMARY PREFACE, WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED FOR THE
WINTER OF 2025-2026, WHICH DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIRECT IMPACT ON
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS MEANS ATTENTION MUST BE TURNED TO OTHER TELECONNECTIONS FOR
INSIGHT INTO THE LONGWAVE WEATHER PATTERNS THAT WILL DOMINATE THE
WINTER WEATHER FOR THE REGION, AND ULTIMATELY THE ICE COVERAGE
EXTENT ON THE LAKES FOR THE UPCOMING SEASON. LONG RANGE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS DO NOT SHOW STRONG SIGNALS EITHER WAY FOR
COLDER THAN NORMAL OR WARMER THAN NORMAL WINTER CONDITIONS, BUT DO
INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS COULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE GREAT LAKES WITH FREQUENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH AND FREQUENTLY CHANGING AIRMASSES DUE TO THE
HIGHER AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE STATUS OF EL NINO/LA NINA IS
NOT THE SOLE DETERMINING FACTOR IN THE LONG RANGE WINTER OUTLOOKS,
BUT IT DOES SET MANY THINGS INTO MOTION. IT WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ON
THE OTHER TELECONNECTIONS SUCH AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO), THE
PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION (PNA), AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION (NAO), AND THE INFLUENCES ARE NOT ALWAYS THE SAME
DESPITE SIMILAR STATUSES OF EL NINO/LA NINA OF PAST YEARS. THESE
TELECONNECTIONS WILL OFTEN TIMES HAVE MORE OF A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THEY WILL RESPOND TO
THE EL NINO/LA NINA OCCURRING AT THE TIME AND CAN THEN AFFECT THE
LOCAL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR
SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF TIME, ULTIMATELY INFLUENCING THE BEHAVIOR OF
THE GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING.
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN TERMS OF AIR
TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER BY 3-6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AS WE GET INTO
THE HEART OF THE FALL SEASON, WHILE THE LOWER LAKES ARE 2-4 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. THIS IS DESPITE A COOL DOWN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE LAST THIRD OF THE MONTH THAT BROUGHT
SOME OF THESE ANOMALIES DOWN. WITH ANOTHER FALL SEASON ABOVE NORMAL,
THERE HAS BEEN A LAG IN TERMS OF HEAT REMOVAL FROM THE GREAT LAKES,
AND THIS IS SEEN IN THE AVERAGE LAKE SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES,
WHICH AS OF THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER, ARE RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (BASED ON DATA
COMPILED FROM 1995 ONWARD). THIS IS A SIMILAR SETUP TO THE 2024-2025
SEASON WHERE SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO BEGINNING THE FALL
SEASON WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. ONE CONCLUSION FROM THIS IS THAT
IT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LATER BEGINNING OF THE ICE SEASON (AS IT
DID LAST SEASON) UNLESS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS BEGIN WITH FREQUENCY TO
ACCELERATE THE HEAT REMOVAL PROCESS FROM THE WATER. CURRENTLY, THE 3
TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS INDICATING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL AIR
TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THAT SAID, LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY POINTING TO A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 9TH WITH A COLDER AIRMASS FOR A
FEW DAYS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT A LONG RANGE PREDICTION OF
SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION CAN STILL
INCLUDE COLD AIR OUTBREAKS, BUT WITH THE NET AVERAGE STILL BEING
ABOVE NORMAL OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES AS OF THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER: FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. FOR LAKE
MICHIGAN, THE NORTHERN PORTION IS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S, AND UPPER
50S OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. ON LAKE HURON, THE RANGE
IS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S, AND ON LAKE ERIE, TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SINCE THE WEAK LA NINA DOES NOT LEND TO A DIRECT
EFFECT ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE GREAT LAKES TYPICALLY,
ATTENTION WILL BE TURNED TO THE OTHER TELECONNECTIONS. AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE, THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS COMING FROM THOSE
TELECONNECTIONS (PNA/AO/NAO) EITHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
ANOTHER COMPONENT WE WILL WATCH IS THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX.
IF IT WEAKENS (AND THERE ARE OTHER SIGNALS FROM A PHENOMENON CALLED
THE QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION THAT SUGGEST THAT IT WILL, IN FACT,
WEAKEN), THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIRMASSES TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE
POLAR REGIONS MORE EASILY AS OPPOSED TO WHEN THE VORTEX IS STRONG
WHERE IT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE COLDER AIRMASSES TO MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD. BUT IN THE END, THESE MAY BE ONLY SHORT LIVED AIRMASSES
THAT EXIT AND THEN REBOUND TO MILDER WINTER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
WITH THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL OVERALL WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED,
THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE FREQUENT COLD/MILD AIRMASS
FLUCTUATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, LONG RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING A DEEP AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
COMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON FOR THIS REGION THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION WITH SOME AREAS TRYING TO SNOW. WHILE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ICE IS UNLIKELY TO FORM FROM THIS, IT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO SEE
HOW MUCH HEAT IS PULLED FROM THE LAKES AND WHERE THE SURFACE WATER
TEMPERATURES STAND AFTERWARDS. AS STATED ABOVE, WATER TEMPERATURES
ARE STARTING OUT ABOVE NORMAL, AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THOSE
ANOMALIES TO SEE IF THEY COME DOWN IN MID NOVEMBER ONCE THE COLDER
AIRMASS HAS EXITED THE REGION. THIS COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT GOING
FORWARD ON WHETHER THE START OF THE ICE SEASON WOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED OR NOT.
KEEP IN MIND THAT ICE COULD DEVELOP EARLIER OR LATER SINCE ICE
DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE OCCURRENCE OF COLD AIR
OUTBREAKS AND WARM PERIODS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT
TWO MONTHS.
ICE FORMATION IS DETERMINED BY TWO FACTORS: THE AMOUNT OF HEAT
STORED IN THE WATER FROM THE SUMMER AND HOW FAST THAT HEAT CAN BE
REMOVED BY ARCTIC OUTBREAKS OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR AND HIGH WINDS. LONG
RANGE OUTLOOKS DO NOT CONSIDER THE "STORMINESS" FACTOR WHICH CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE LAKES OVER SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME.
THE LATEST HARBOR WATER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS:
2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 NORMAL
DULUTH 49 49 49 51 44 40 40 42 44 44
SAULT STE MARIE 53 54 47 51 48 48 46 42 44 47
CHICAGO 53 56 53 55 52 47 44 46 44 53
ALPENA 51 51 51 54 49 47 42 42 46 48
DETROIT 51 56 49 51 47 52 44 43 42 52
CLEVELAND 56 59 53 55 53 53 51 48 50 56
BUFFALO 54 57 55 56 53 50 52 49 46 54
WATER TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-LAKE BUOYS OR NEARBY SHIPS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS YEARS:
LAKE SUPERIOR
WEST 44 47 43 45 48 45 44 44 52 47
CENTRAL 46 48 44 44 MM 41 43 41 52 47
EAST 48 49 45 45 MM 42 46 41 52 48
LAKE MICHIGAN
NORTH 54 53 52 48 56 50 51 49 56 54
SOUTH 56 57 54 51 59 47 50 51 58 56
LAKE HURON
NORTH 52 48 46 51 57 49 49 45 51 53
SOUTH 55 58 53 54 56 46 49 49 59 55
LAKE ERIE
WEST 55 56 54 54 60 MM 53 53 56 56
CENTRAL 57 59 55 57 60 55 56 53 63 58
EAST 56 58 55 56 60 53 54 53 62 57
FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS
COMPARED TO NORMAL CALCULATED ON SUN NOV 2:
LOCATION DATE NORMAL CURRENT
----------------------------------------
DULUTH, MN NOV 1 0 0
MARQUETTE, MI NOV 1 0 0
SAU_S_MAR, MI NOV 1 0 0
GREENBAY, WI NOV 1 0 0
MILWAUKEE, WI NOV 1 0 0
CHICAGO, IL NOV 1 0 0
MUSKEGON, MI NOV 1 0 0
ALPENA, MI NOV 1 0 0
DETROIT, MI NOV 1 0 0
TOLEDO, OH NOV 1 0 0
CLEVELAND, OH NOV 1 0 0
BUFFALO, NY NOV 1 0 0
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES FOR SUN NOV 2
LOCATION HIGH LOW
----------------------------------------------
DULUTH,MN 40 26
MARQUETTE,MI 41 29
GREENBAY,WI 47 30
MILWAUKEE,WI 50 35
CHICAGO,IL 52 35
MUSKEGON,MI 50 35
ALPENA,MI 47 30
DETROIT,MI 52 36
TOLEDO,OH 52 35
CLEVELAND,OH 53 38
BUFFALO,NY 51 37
THE NEXT FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN APPROXIMATELY TWO WEEKS.
MARSALEK
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