188
FXUS61 KCLE 130450
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1150 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
..06Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING BACK SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITATION SHOWING AN UPTICK ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE.
CONVERGENCE WAS FOCUSED OUT OVER LAKE ERIE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS BUT STEERING FLOW IS SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY WITH SHOWERS EXPANDING ACROSS
ASHTABULA, ERIE, AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, MOISTURE DEPTH IS SHALLOW
AND SHOWERS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME EXPANDING MUCH FARTHER WEST
INTO OHIO. THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA AT 700MB
WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA TOWARDS 7 PM AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO DECREASE AS WE TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A MULTIBANDED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION SCENARIO.
GIVEN THE LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN RAIN OR POSSIBLY MIX WITH A WET SNOW TONIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL TEND TO FALL INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S TONIGHT WITH A MODERATED AIRMASS OFF LAKE ERIE
AND DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO BE A CONCERN
ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE COOLER VALLEYS MAY APPROACH 32-33 DEGREES.
ON THURSDAY EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU TO LINGER IN THE
SNOWBELT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT CHILLY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WITH INLAND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM STARTS WITH DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES TREND BACK UP ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT FORCED BY A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVERHEAD. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN A
STRONGER INVERSION AND MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SHOWN BY THE NAM
OR A GFS SOLUTION THAT IS DRIER AND PERHAPS SUPPORTS A LITTLE DEEPER
MIXING DEPTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR A BLENDED
FORECAST SOLUTION WITH A CHANCE POP THAT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BUT
THAT MAY TREND DOWNWARD IF THE MORE CLOUDY SOLUTION WITH DRIZZLE
VERIFIES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY NIGHT, PULLING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. WE LOOK FOR AN EXPANSION OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
COULD POTENTIALLY EVEN GET A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, MAINLY TOWARDS NORTHEAST OHIO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES OR INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES WILL
EFFECT THE DISTRIBUTION OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL THEY LOOK TO BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH
HIGHER CHANCES FOCUSED MORE TOWARDS NEW YORK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS. THIS COULD BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TOWARDS
TUESDAY BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRACK. ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
STILL SOME LINGERING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS OF LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OVER FAR NEOH AND NWPA. CEILINGS WILL STAY AROUND
5000 FEET FOR ERI AND MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BETWEEN 7 AND 13 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE COMING OFF LAKE ERIE AT ERI
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL RETURN BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z
FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL RELAX
THURSDAY EVENING 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NON-VFR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL
GRADUALLY EXPIRE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WHILE DECREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-12 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ELEVATED WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL REMAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN THE ONSHORE COMPONENT, WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 3-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY LEADING TO WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15
KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 3 FEET OR LESS. WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY BEFORE ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM. WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER LAKE
ERIE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13
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