455
FXUS61 KCLE 130744
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
244 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A LARGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL CONUS. ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA HAVE ENDED AND THE
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON ARE FOCUSED
MORE INTO NEW YORK. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA, BUT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION GOING FORWARD WILL BE LOW TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH AREAS OUT WEST SEEING 50.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY, THE HIGH AXIS
WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT
OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND THE EASTERN HALF BEING INTO THE UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AT THIS TIME WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN EASTERN OHIO AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THE CORRESPONDING COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. BEHIND THE
FRONT, PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SNOWBELT DUE TO AN
INFLUX OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORM
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY
ELEVATED AREAS, BUT WILL CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL.
FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM, ON SATURDAY HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH THE PASSING WARM FRONT,
THOUGH COULD BE MUTED SOME GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL MUCH LOWER DOWN INTO THE MID 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30 TO LOW
40S TO START AND DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH THE CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. A FEATURE TO WATCH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WOULD BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. CURRENTLY, MODELS TEND TO VARY ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE AS IT EXISTS THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH SOME DEAMPLIFYING
THE WAVE AND OTHERS HAVING IT PERSIST EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SAYING THAT, IF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY,
THEN IT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THOUGH AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. FOR TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR BOTH HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
STILL SOME LINGERING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS OF LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OVER FAR NEOH AND NWPA. CEILINGS WILL STAY AROUND
5000 FEET FOR ERI AND MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BETWEEN 7 AND 13 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE COMING OFF LAKE ERIE AT ERI
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL RETURN BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z
FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL RELAX
THURSDAY EVENING 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. NON-VFR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WILL
GRADUALLY EXPIRE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WHILE DECREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-12 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ELEVATED WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL REMAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN THE ONSHORE COMPONENT, WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 3-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY LEADING TO WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15
KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDING TO 3 FEET OR LESS. WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY BEFORE ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM. WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER LAKE
ERIE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ144-
145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13
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