326
FXUS61 KCLE 132040
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SETTLE TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO START THE WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUD WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS
EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 50S ACROSS OHIO WITH
UPPER 40S IN PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SEE SOME MOISTENING NEAR 850MB AS
WELL WITH SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BROKEN CLOUDS EXPANDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
EXTENDING FROM AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING
AND CLOUD COVER THAT WILL DEVELOP WITH THE WARM FRONT. A CLOUD
DECK AT OR BELOW 2K FEET IS LIKELY WHILE THE NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND FAVORS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIXING
LIMITED TO PERHAPS 1000 FEET. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE IMPORTANT
WITH A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVERHEAD AND TRYING TO
DETERMINE POTENTIAL GUSTINESS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
FORECAST FAVORS A SOLUTION WITH MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR 2K FEET AND THE
STRONGER GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. IF MIXING IS DEEPER THAN
EXPECTED, WINDS OF 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
WHILE MIXING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES STAY A LITTLE COOLER IN THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES, GUSTS AREA STILL EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHER POPS ARE LOCATED IN THE EAST AND ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ASHLAND TO
YOUNGSTOWN. LARGE SCALE FORCING IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NOSE OF A 500MB UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE STORM PREDICATION CENTER DOES HAVE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL BE
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON IF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE
HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WHICH IS UNCERTAIN. THERE IS
STRONG VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT ALONG WITH
0-3KM SHEER INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN OR ROBUST SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AREA WIDE. WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST SO QUICKLY ON SUNDAY, DEEP MOISTURE
ALSO EXITS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE SNOWBELT SO POPS ARE LIMITED TO JUST CHANCE VALUES ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM CLEVELAND TO
YOUNGSTOWN WITH SEE SUN RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM HOLDS ONTO A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WITH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
OHIO VALLEY. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WHILE AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY ARE LIKELY TO SEE A ROUND OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BUT WE MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SO POPS ARE LOW IN
THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO START BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY TREND WARMER.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOW
TEENS AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INHIBIT
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH EXITING LOW VMC CEILINGS AT
KERI THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 10 KNOTS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHERLY BY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT, WITH
MID LEVEL CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
VMC CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER, NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...MARGINAL VMC CONDITIONS WITH RAIN IS LIKELY SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST OHIO. MARGINAL VMC OR IMC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
GIVEN CURRENT WIND AND WAVE OBSERVATIONS OPTED TO CANCEL THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT A FEW HOURS EARLY. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS ELEVATED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS 3-6 FEET WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE
TURNING OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
RETURN TO 20-25 KNOTS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY WHILE
INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP ELEVATED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...27
MARINE...13
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