055
FXUS61 KCLE 140721
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
221 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFT EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, HOWEVER CLEARING WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN WESTERN ZONES LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
EASTERN ZONES CLEARING A BIT BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 40S AND 50S TODAY WITH THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND THE COOLER HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ANTICIPATED ACROSS NE OH AND NW
PA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER POPS WON'T INCREASE UNTIL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY
BE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR BY THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS DEVELOP, HENCE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A 45 KNOT LLJ BUILDS OVER THE REGION, AND
GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIXING
DEPTH DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD FOR THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IF
THE MIXING DEPTHS END UP BEING HIGHER.
THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OH/NW PA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE WIND FIELD
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW SINCE THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH AND STORMS COULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE THEY
GET STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S, BUT DELAYED WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INTERIOR NE
OH/NW PA. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 60S
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA; THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WITH LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP LIKELY DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FETCH SUPPORTS
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY JUST EAST OF THE NY/NW PA BORDER, BUT A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND MAY RESULT IN HIGHER POPS IN
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS OF NOW, LIKELY
POPS ARE PRESENT FROM ROUGHLY ERIE, PA EAST WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT. PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE RAIN DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR TRANSITION
TO SNOW IS LIKELY WHEN TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT. POPS SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED EACH DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT'S
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLE
SURFACE LOW THAT COULD MOVE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND/OR OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOCAL AREA WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO HAVE BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THAT WILL
LIKELY BE REFINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY,
RESULTING IN INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
40S TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING INTO THE MID 40S AND POSSIBLY THE
LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AVIATION WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH NO CONCERNS FOR PILOTS
FLYING IN AND OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE
REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES INITIALLY BUT HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND LINGER FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY.
BROKEN CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE 10K FEET AND HIGHER
WITH NO IMPACTS FOR AVIATION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5
KNOTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTH- SOUTHWEST
5 TO 8 KNOTS LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MARGINAL VMC CONDITIONS WITH RAIN IS LIKELY SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST OHIO. MARGINAL VMC OR IMC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
GIVEN CURRENT WIND AND WAVE OBSERVATIONS OPTED TO CANCEL THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT A FEW HOURS EARLY. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS ELEVATED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS 3-6 FEET WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE
TURNING OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
RETURN TO 20-25 KNOTS BY SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY WHILE
INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP ELEVATED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KNOTS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SET OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ147>149.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13
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