328
FXUS61 KCLE 141818
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
118 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFT EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, HOWEVER CLEARING WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN WESTERN ZONES LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
EASTERN ZONES CLEARING A BIT BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 40S AND 50S TODAY WITH THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND THE COOLER HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ANTICIPATED ACROSS NE OH AND NW
PA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER POPS WON'T INCREASE UNTIL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY
BE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR BY THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS DEVELOP, HENCE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A 45 KNOT LLJ BUILDS OVER THE REGION, AND
GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIXING
DEPTH DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD FOR THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IF
THE MIXING DEPTHS END UP BEING HIGHER.
THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OH/NW PA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE WIND FIELD
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW SINCE THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH AND STORMS COULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE THEY
GET STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S, BUT DELAYED WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INTERIOR NE
OH/NW PA. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 60S
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA; THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WITH LAKE EFFECT
PRECIP LIKELY DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FETCH SUPPORTS
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY JUST EAST OF THE NY/NW PA BORDER, BUT A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND MAY RESULT IN HIGHER POPS IN
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS OF NOW, LIKELY
POPS ARE PRESENT FROM ROUGHLY ERIE, PA EAST WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT. PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE RAIN DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR TRANSITION
TO SNOW IS LIKELY WHEN TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT. POPS SHOULD
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED EACH DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT'S
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLE
SURFACE LOW THAT COULD MOVE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND/OR OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOCAL AREA WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM, SO HAVE BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THAT WILL
LIKELY BE REFINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY,
RESULTING IN INCREASING POPS TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
40S TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING INTO THE MID 40S AND POSSIBLY THE
LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY AND LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS
WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-12Z AND LOWER TO MVFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IFR IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. SOME DRIZZLE
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT, MAINLY AT CAK/YNG BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DID NOT INTRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT
A LOW LEVEL JET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST AFTER 08Z. LOOKS LIKE A WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER IS
POSSIBLE AT TOL/FDY THROUGH 13-15Z WHEN SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS INITIALLY
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS, INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS 30 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
21-00Z SATURDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEAST OHIO. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT ERI SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NON-VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT FDY/MFD/CAK.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL, BUT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES EASTERN
ONTARIO. SSW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
TO 15-25 KNOTS FROM THE WSW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT SATURDAY
BEFORE TURNING NW AT 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3 TO 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 5 TO 9
FEET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NW WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY, SO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. LIGHT NNW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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