487
FXUS61 KCLE 142044
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
GUSTY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. WINDS MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE LATEST SPC SWODY2 MARGINAL RISK REMAINS FOR OUR EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WITH FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE, EVIDENT BY THE
ARRIVAL OF A 50-KNOT 700 MB JET. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONGER SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS WILL BE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LESS THAN 6 DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. FOR A QUICK REFERENCE,
THE OCTOBER 21, 2021 HIGH-SHEAR, LOW CAPE SEVERE EVENT HAD SIMILAR
OR PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE WITH
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RANGING BETWEEN 7-8 C/KM. IN ADDITION,
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF DENSE ADVECTION FOG AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA, THOUGH LOW CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE PRIMARY MODE ELSEWHERE DUE
TO INCREASING FLOW ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, PARTICULARLY IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 4 POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF INLAND
ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES.
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -8 DEGREES C AND
PRIMARILY NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN FOCUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. AN UPSTREAM LAKE HURON MOISTURE CONNECTION
MAY ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH PEAK SNOWFALL RATES UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. COULD CERTAINLY SEE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR INLAND ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES AT SOME POINT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF SNOWFALL TRENDS CONTINUE.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW, PRIMARILY QUIET AND CHILLY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. WIND CHILLS MAY FALL INTO
THE TEENS AT TIMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRIMARILY RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR.
MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE, ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. EARLY SIGNS POINT TO THIS BEING A "WARM" AND RAINY SYSTEM
AS MODELS DEPICT A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY AND LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS
WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-12Z AND LOWER TO MVFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IFR IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. SOME DRIZZLE
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT, MAINLY AT CAK/YNG BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DID NOT INTRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT
A LOW LEVEL JET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST AFTER 08Z. LOOKS LIKE A WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER IS
POSSIBLE AT TOL/FDY THROUGH 13-15Z WHEN SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS INITIALLY
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS, INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS 30 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
21-00Z SATURDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEAST OHIO. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT ERI SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NON-VFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT FDY/MFD/CAK.
MARINE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT BEGINNING AT NOON
EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE ISLANDS AND AT 7 PM FOR AREAS WEST OF THE LAKE
ERIE ISLANDS. THE PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
FALLING WATER LEVELS ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE. AT THIS TIME
THE LOWEST WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION SO
WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS. A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE SATURDAY EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-30 KNOTS RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY
BRIEFLY BE NEAR A LOW END GALE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
SCHEDULED TO END WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT 10 PM SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A
PROLONGED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDING THROUGH MONDAY IS EXPECTED
EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY ON TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LEZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 10 PM EST MONDAY
FOR LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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