661
FXUS61 KCLE 161946
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
246 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE TURNING UNSETTLED AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
DEVELOPING BAND OF LAKE EFFECT OCCURRING TODAY WITH CONNECTIONS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR, LAKE HURON, AND LAKE ERIE IN A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES DROP, ENDING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FEED IS
CUT OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
WEST. THERE ARE THREE MAIN FACTORS AT PLAY WITH THIS PRECIPITATION
FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST IS THE TRANSITION TO
SNOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE. SNOW IS FALLING
IN LOW DEWPOINT AIR IN NW PA AT THIS HOUR, WHERE WET BULBING IS
OCCURRING, BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING FOR
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS TO START AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT. THE SECOND WILL BE SLIGHT WEST/EAST OSCILLATIONS OF THE
BAND OVER THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE VARIABILITY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
MUCH, BUT JUST PERHAPS ENOUGH TO KEEP A DISTRIBUTION OF THE SNOWFALL
AND TOTALS DOWN SLIGHTLY. THAT SAID, THIS LAKE EFFECT EVENT ONLY
CLIPS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE NW PA COUNTIES...FURTHER WEST
IN THOSE COUNTIES, STORM TOTAL SNOW IS LESS THAN AN INCH, WHERE AS
THE MAX FURTHER EAST IS RIGHT AROUND 6 INCHES. FINALLY, THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS, WITH WARM SURFACE LAKE WATER
TEMPERATURES, WILL HAVE TROUBLE WITH ACCUMULATIONS, SO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LARGER INLAND PORTION
OF ERIE AND CRAWFORD FOR THE WESTERN CWA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW TRAVERSES IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, DOES NOT
ENTIRELY LOOK LIKE A MIXED PRECIPITATION/FREEZING RAIN CERTAINTY,
AND WILL GO WITH SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW MIX TO RAIN ON THE FRONT END FOR
THIS ISSUANCE. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS TEMPERATURES
PRIOR TO ONSET MONDAY NIGHT LIKELY START IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS ONLY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 40S WITH RAIN, EXITING EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BACK IN PLAY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY AS
850MB TEMPERATURES MAKE A SUBSTANTIAL JUMP, WITH NEAR 60F IN PLACES
BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL TRACK EASTWARD AS
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE CONUS CONTINUES ONWARD. COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY WHILE PHASING WITH THE
DEVELOPING COLORADO LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS WILL
BRING UNSETTLED, RAINY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AND
LIKELY COOLING BACK DOWN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR AND IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN
BANDS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING,
PARTICULARLY AT YNG/ERI. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW IN THE
PLACEMENT OF AN INTENSE AND NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
IMPACTING ERI LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, SO KEPT THE
PROB30 MENTION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 32 KNOTS. A FEW ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT CLE/ERI. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY AREAWIDE IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW ON
TUESDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MARINE
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING, WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSING WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION IN ITS WAKE. THE FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE 8-9 C LAKE ERIE WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE LAKE SURFACE. NW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS
NEARING GALE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW PULLING
AWAY QUICKLY AND STRONGEST WIND FIELDS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO, STILL
THINK LAKE ERIE WILL STAY JUST BELOW GALE. NEVERTHELESS, THE NW
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO IT WILL BE VERY ROUGH
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE WESTERN BASIN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO END AT 09Z MONDAY FROM MAUMEE BAY TO THE ISLANDS
AND 21Z MONDAY FROM THE ISLANDS TO AVON POINT. IT WILL TAKE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
FARTHER EAST FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY, NY.
A NICE BREAK IS EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
APPROACHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY BECOMING E AT 5-10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY, BUT E TO SE WINDS SHOULD START TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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