346
FXUS61 KCLE 172040
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SNOW AND
SLEET, TUESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OHIO.
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
EXITS EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A MODEST SOUTHWEST LLJ WILL
INCREASE WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING,
OVERRUNNING A GENERALLY COLD NEAR-SURFACE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. WET SNOW
WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION MODE, THOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE AS SNOW TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SLICK SPOTS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE A
"WARM" SYSTEM WITH RAIN BEING THE SOLE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE LOW TO MID-50S. OTHERWISE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER MAY STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, LIMITING HIGHS TO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
APART FROM UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY, THE
LONG TERM PERIOD APPEARS MAINLY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
FAVORED TO BUILD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY THE
WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR FRIDAY, A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND
THE THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG
THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY, THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-30
CORRIDOR. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR TO START WITH A CLEAR SKY IN NW OH, AND ON THE OVERCAST SIDE
EASTWARD INTO NW PA WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA HAS CLOUDS
INCREASING AND LOWERING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD, WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ONSET AFTER 12Z FOR FDY/TOL, WHERE TOL
COULD START WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. ALL OTHER TERMINALS START AS AND
CONTINUE AS RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS LOWER TO
MVFR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER ONSET, WITH IFR POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
TAF IN PROLONGED PRECIPITATION IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
FOR THE ERI TERMINAL, BKN-OVC DECK FL040 EXPECTED THROUGH
AROUND 06Z TONIGHT, A BRIEF BREAK WITH HIGH CLOUDS, AND THEN
LOWERING ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS W TO WNW GUSTING TO 25KTS AT TIMES, EASING THROUGH THE
LATER EVENING HOURS WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND THEN E TO NE TUESDAY UNDER
10KTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE
RETURN OF NON-VFR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
MARINE
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN TO LESS THAN A FOOT
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE, WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AT
10-20KTS, WITH WESTERN BASIN WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 1-3FT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
LESS THAN A FOOT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KTS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY, WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
10-20KTS, AND WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4FT FROM AVON POINT EASTWARD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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