006
FXUS61 KCLE 180525
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1225 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SNOW AND
SLEET, TUESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OHIO.
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
EXITS EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. A MODEST SOUTHWEST LLJ WILL
INCREASE WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING,
OVERRUNNING A GENERALLY COLD NEAR-SURFACE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. WET SNOW
WILL INITIALLY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION MODE, THOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE AS SNOW TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SLICK SPOTS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE A
"WARM" SYSTEM WITH RAIN BEING THE SOLE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE LOW TO MID-50S. OTHERWISE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER MAY STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, LIMITING HIGHS TO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
APART FROM UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY, THE
LONG TERM PERIOD APPEARS MAINLY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
FAVORED TO BUILD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY THE
WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR FRIDAY, A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND
THE THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG
THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY, THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-30
CORRIDOR. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF KTOL/KFDY AT AROUND 12Z BEFORE
SPREADING EAST TO KYNG BY AROUND 15Z. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE PTYPE AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION; THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF PRECIP STARTING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET AND VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FREEZING RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM PTYPE TRENDS AND MAKE
AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN RAIN OR
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/MIST RATHER IN BETWEEN STEADIER SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF KERI, SO HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FOR THE TIME BEING.
AS FAR AS FLIGHT CONDITIONS GO, CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY DROP TO LOW END VFR/MVFR AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA
BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN/MIST WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF PRECIP ONSET. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE
IN LOWER STRATUS AND MIST/FOG TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT LATER IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
POSSIBLE RETURN OF NON-VFR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
MARINE
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN TO LESS THAN A FOOT
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE, WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AT
10-20KTS, WITH WESTERN BASIN WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 1-3FT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
LESS THAN A FOOT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KTS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY, WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
10-20KTS, AND WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4FT FROM AVON POINT EASTWARD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...15
MARINE...26
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