435
FXUS61 KCLE 181141
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FAST MOVING BUT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL EXIT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH MOVES FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A QUICK SHOT OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING, AND TIMING AND DEGREE OF IMPACT FROM THIS IS THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW ENTERING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED 90-100 KNOT H3 JET STREAK ROUNDING
ITS BASE PUSHING ACROSS MO AND CENTRAL IL. INCREASING ASCENT
NEAR THE LEFT EXIT OF THIS JET STREAK IS ENCOURAGING LOW AND
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT, AND THIS HAS
CAUSED A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BREAK OUT ACROSS
IL AND IN. AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE, THIS ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
RESULTANT BAND OF PRECIP WILL CROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 20S IN
NE OHIO AND NW PA TO THE MID/UPPER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO TO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S IN NW OHIO. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO VERY LOW
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. THIS CREATES A COUPLE OF
CHALLENGES THIS MORNING. FIRST, THE VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY THOSE LOW DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO VIRGA FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS THAT PRECIP MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS COULD
CAUSE THE PRECIP TO LARGELY HOLD OFF UNTIL 15-16Z, AND BY THAT
POINT, SURFACE TEMPS WOULD HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN
OUTSIDE OF FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA. SECOND, THE LOW DEW POINTS
AND RAP BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW AT THE
ONSET FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
SINCE THE WARM NOSE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE NEARLY DEEP ENOUGH FOR
FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY HREF PROBABILISTIC PRECIP
GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SNOW, SLEET,
AND RAIN BEING THE DOMINANT P-TYPES THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
LITTLE TO NO PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS REDUCES THE
CONCERN FOR ICING, BUT THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD
TO ROAD TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING, SO ANY SNOW OR SLEET
WILL STICK AND CAUSE SLICK CONDITIONS. THE AMOUNT OF IMPACT IS
AGAIN TIED TO HOW SOON THE PRECIP CAN BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND.
WITH ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, THE FORECAST FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT
16Z IS UNUSUALLY LOW CONFIDENCE. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE
REASONING, ADDED GREATER AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET AS THE
PRIMARY WEATHER TYPES THIS MORNING, SWITCHING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY 18Z, AND COMPLETELY REMOVED ANY FREEZING RAIN. IN TERMS OF
TIMING, PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY 11 OR
12Z, REACHING THE I-71 AND I-77 CORRIDORS BY 15Z, AND THE OH/PA
BORDER BY 17Z. THESE TIMES COULD SHIFT BACK AN HOUR OR TWO
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO OVERCOME THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
AIR, WHICH AGAIN, WOULD LIMIT ANY FROZEN PRECIP AND LEAD TO
MORE RAIN. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A TRACE
TO 0.5 INCH AT MOST; HIGHEST IN NW OHIO AND ALONG THE U.S. 30
CORRIDOR WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE JET DYNAMICS. WILL USE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) THIS MORNING AS A HEADS UP FOR
POSSIBLE SLICK CONDITIONS.
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40, MAKING FOR A COLD, RAW DAY. SOME
SNOW AND SLEET COULD CONTINUE IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA UNTIL AS
LATE AS 21Z, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PURE RAIN.
THE WEAK LOW WILL RAPIDLY EXIT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY IN ITS WAKE FOR WEDNESDAY, SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S, WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE DRY
CONDITIONS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT LOOKS UNLIKELY
TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, SO NBM POPS LOOK
REASONABLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND
850 MB LOW TRACK SINCE THAT IS WHERE THE OLD QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESIDE,
BUT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL STILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING INTO GENERALLY
THE LOW 30S FRIDAY NIGHT, SO ANY SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SOME
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PATTERN IS TRENDING DRIER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE RIDGING TO BRIEFLY BUILD IN, HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SYSTEMS AWAIT FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A VERY
ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE COUNTRY, SO EXACT
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN. KEPT NBM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MONDAY SINCE IT IS SO HARD TO TIME THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THIS
PATTERN, BUT OVERALL, IT IS A DRIER TREND.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS PRECIPITATION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF
KTOL/KFDY CLOSE TO THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE SPREADING
EAST TO KYNG BY AROUND 15Z. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA,
WHICH IS RESULTING IN QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA. IF PRECIP MANAGES TO
REACH THE GROUND EARLIER THIS MORNING, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WHERE SHOWERS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED OR
PRECIP RATES WILL BE MORE LIKE DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
EXPECT RAIN TO FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING.
AS FAR AS FLIGHT CONDITIONS GO, CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY DROP TO LOW END VFR/MVFR AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA
BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN/MIST WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF PRECIP ONSET. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE
IN LOWER STRATUS AND MIST/FOG TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT LATER IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
POSSIBLE RETURN OF NON-VFR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
MARINE
DESPITE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE
THROUGH SATURDAY. VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER
MOST OF THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF WEDNESDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY BEFORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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