686
FXUS61 KCLE 181857
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
157 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, EXITING NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
COLD RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
BEHIND A SHALLOW WARM FRONT. ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A PERIOD OF MORE
STEADY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. AS
RAIN TAPERS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH,
TRAPPING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN FOG
COVERAGE IS LOW, THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER MAY STICK
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, LIMITING HIGHS TO THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, EXTENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, THOUGH THINK A FEW LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS APPEAR PLAUSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY STALL ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG
IT ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE FRIDAY SYSTEM, WITH THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES
FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SEASONABLE AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER APPEARS FAVORED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY, PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO BEGIN
WATCHING TRENDS FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY FOR OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING, WITH
CURRENT CONDITIONS DEFINED BY VFR OVERCAST SKIES AND AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CEILINGS THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY
IFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. KCLE/KERI AREAS
COULD ESCAPE THE IFR TONIGHT, OR AT LEAST BE A BIT MORE BRIEF
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. ONCE IFR DEVELOPS, IT SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS, WITH
PARTS OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST OHIO IMPROVING TO
VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN WITH RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER WITH NEAR CALM
WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
BEFORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN RESPONSE
TO THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY,
THOUGH WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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