288
FXUS61 KCLE 191748
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1248 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP IN
FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR TERM ALONG WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF CLOSED LOWS
ROTATING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY
THEN SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY, BUT CLOUDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS THE FIRST IN THE
SERIES OF SOUTHWEST CONUS CLOSED LOWS OPENS UP AND EJECTS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LEADING TO THE START OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S TODAY AND UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S,
EXCEPT FOR UPPER 20S IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE OF
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
OLD CLOSED LOW CONTINUE TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, A NORTHERN STREAM
MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED H5 LOW WILL PASS BETWEEN
HUDSON BAY AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE JET SUPPORT ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY WELL
NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, SO NBM CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH
SINCE THE DYNAMICS ARE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND IT ALSO SLOWS
IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SO NO AIRMASS
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD IS TRENDING DRIER AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASS
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT, SO
CONTINUE TO HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 30 CLOSER TO THE SUPPORT,
BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY A FEW
TENTHS OF QPF IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH AROUND 0.25 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 30.
DRYING IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S FRIDAY, COOLING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PULLED FARTHER SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING OHIO VALLEY LOW. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S, WITH LOW/MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ACTIVE SPLIT MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF TIMING PRECIP CHANCES.
SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM SHOULD BRING
DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REALLY DECREASES BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER (AND MUCH STRONGER) SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW STARTS TO PROGRESS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH A SERIES
OF FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS COULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA AROUND THANKSGIVING, BUT GUIDANCE HAS
LARGE SPREAD. AT THIS POINT, GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS FROM NBM
LOOK REASONABLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OVC/BKN SKIES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH CEILINGS IN THE 1500-3500 FT RANGE. SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS HAS OCCURRED IN CENTRAL OHIO, THE EASTERN TIER OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR VFR CONDITIONS THERE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST IN THEIR CURRENT LOCATION THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
SLIGHT EXPANSION IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN WITH RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER ENSUING, THOUGH PERHAPS THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CHOPPINESS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH FLOW OF
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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