086
FXUS61 KCLE 192347
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
647 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE AFFECTS OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. AS THE RIDGE EXITS EASTWARD, A WARM
FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SETTLING OVER OUR
AREA ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ALOFT, SUBTLE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
VICINITY BEFORE CRESTING E'WARD ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY.
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXIT E'WARD AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND VICINITY,
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NE'WARD OVER/NEAR THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR REGION TONIGHT AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. ON THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
RIDGE WILL EXIT E'WARD. IN ADDITION, A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT
NE'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MAINLY THE MID
20'S TO MID 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WEAK OR CALM SURFACE
WINDS, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY, AND CLOUD BREAKS SHOULD
PERMIT PATCHY RADIATION FOG FORMATION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
FINDLAY, OH TO MEADVILLE, PA LINE. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ON THURSDAY,
LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 40'S
TO LOWER 50'S. DURING THURSDAY NIGHT, STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWS REACHING THE MID
30'S TO LOWER 40'S AROUND MIDNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT MODERATION IN
AIR TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE
ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
AT/NEAR 5KFT TO 8KFT MSL SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A DRY WARM FRONT
PASSAGE. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, OVER/NEAR LAKE ERIE AND
NORTHERN OH DUE TO THE FOLLOWING: MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS; LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
DEFORMATION ALOFT/ASSOCIATED MOIST ASCENT OVER/NEAR THE OH VALLEY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES MOVE GENERALLY E'WARD
OR SE'WARD OVER OUR REGION. HOWEVER, DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
OF SATURDAY MORNING, A RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP GENERALLY E'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FRIDAY'S
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50'S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LOW-LEVEL CAA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO LOWS REACHING THE THE LOWER 30'S TO LOWER 40'S AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT, AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO IMPACT NORTHERN OH
AND NW PA ON FRIDAY. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-REACHES OF
THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT OUR REGION GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAY ALLOW
RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
TRACE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND VICINITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE, THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION AS THE
EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS
STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE. INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE AMIDST CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40'S ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE PROJECTED
TRACK OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER, LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD
IMPACT OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
A RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED WARM FRONT TO SWEEP N'WARD THROUGH
OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE
MID 20'S TO MID 30'S DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40'S TO MID 50'S LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DURING SUNDAY NIGHT,
LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 30'S TO LOWER 40'S AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
ON MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD CREST E'WARD
OVER OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE RIDGE EXITS
E'WARD. IN ADDITION, SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD RIPPLE
GENERALLY E'WARD THROUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE 50'S. DURING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, CYCLONIC
SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
IMPACT THE LAKE ERIE REGION, UPPER OH VALLEY, AND VICINITY. AT
THE SURFACE, NET SURFACE TROUGHING SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION AND
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SWEEP E'WARD IN OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE MID 30'S TO LOWER 40'S AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, RESPECTIVELY. DAYTIME HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE 50'S ON TUESDAY AND THE MID 40'S TO LOWER 50'S
ON WEDNESDAY.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO
THE FOLLOWING: MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXES; LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH AXES AND THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY
ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE BRIEFLY TO WET SNOW IN SPOTS
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY, RESPECTIVELY, ESPECIALLY IN
INTERIOR AREAS EAST OF I-77. AT THIS TIME, LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, INCLUDING TOL, FDY, AND MFD ARE
CURRENTLY OBSERVING MVFR STRATUS, WITH A PATCH OF MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL IN AT ALL EXCEPT FOR ERI TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS TO CLE, CAK, AND YNG. ERI IS
CURRENTLY OBSERVING MVFR CEILINGS AND HAZE, THOUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING, WITH LOWER POTENTIAL TO
RETURN TO MVFR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. FDY, YNG, AND PERHAPS
CAK AND MFD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL (20-40%) FOR A PERIOD OF LOWER
IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH DUE
TO CONFIDENCE <50% THESE LOWER CONDITIONS ARE NOT YET INCLUDED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE <5KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN WITH RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER ENSUING, THOUGH PERHAPS THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CHOPPINESS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH FLOW OF
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA
NEAR TERM...JASZKA
SHORT TERM...JASZKA
LONG TERM...JASZKA
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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