843
FXUS61 KCLE 111504
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1004 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHILE DRAGGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
10:00 AM UPDATE...
AN INTENSE LAKE-EFFECT BAND HAS FLARED UP FROM NORTHERN LORAIN
COUNTY ACROSS MUCH OF CUYAHOGA COUNTY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SUBTLE TROUGH CROSSING
LAKE ERIE, AS WELL AS DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO A
WIDE DGZ. RAP BUFKIT SHOWS THIS CONVERGENCE AND LIFT THROUGH THE
DGZ TO BE MAINTAINED OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS ALONG WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 7 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET, SO THE BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW. LUCKILY, THE BAND WILL BE
DRIFTING SE AND WILL NOT BE STATIONARY, SO WILL HANDLE WITH
SPS'S FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE AND A QUICK INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN LORAIN, CUYAHOGA,
NORTHERN MEDINA, NORTHERN SUMMIT, AND NORTHERN PORTAGE COUNTIES
THROUGH 18Z AS THIS BAND PIVOTS EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD. ALSO
INCREASED SNOWFALL TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
18Z.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT
A LAKE HURON CONNECTION INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES FROM THIS BAND WILL REMAIN OVER ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE 2-3" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING. MEAN-LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. OVERALL ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NOW
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3" ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND 3-5" ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 5-7" ARE POSSIBLE IN ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE BANDS PERSIST. LAKE
EFFECT BANDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A
QUICK 0.5" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY. THIS CLIPPER WILL DRAG A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL RESUME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE REGION.
WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
SETTLE IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY RISE TO THE 20S. MUCH
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 10S. REMAINING COOL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME ZONES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DROPPING AS LOW AS -10F.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT LOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN
TO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE 20S ON MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S
BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OVERCAST SKIES ARE OBSERVED AREAWIDE WITH CEILINGS IN THE
2,000-4,000 FT RANGE. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE,
THOUGH WILL TEND TO BE MOSTLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. BETTER ORGANIZED SNOW BANDS ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN INTO THE 1-2 SM RANGE IN
OHIO, AND DOWN TO 1/2 SM IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TAFS
PRIMARILY CONTAIN MVFR VISIBILITIES, WHICH IS DUE TO THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF IFR-PRODUCING SNOWBANDS.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS LIKELY IN PERIODS OF SNOW AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE NEAR AND EAST OF THE
ISLANDS, THOUGH CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH PEAK WIND SPEEDS OF
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH AND IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WAVES OF 5-9 FEET ARE LIKELY
EAST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS GENERALLY BECOMES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ013-
014.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ144-
145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS/13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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