740
FXUS61 KCLE 112035
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
335 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY, WITH A TROUGH LINGERING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BROAD COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW. REGIONAL RADAR
LOOPS SHOW MULTIPLE BANDS ACROSS BOTH THE INLAND PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY SNOWBELTS WITH UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS TO LAKES SUPERIOR
AND MICHIGAN, AS WELL AS A LAKE HURON CONNECTION INTO THE PA/NY
BORDER. THE BANDS ARE ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED SINCE POP UP SNOW
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN MOST AREAS BETWEEN THESE BANDS DUE TO
THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (-13 C AT 850 MB AND -35 C AT 500 MB).
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO THE DGZ AS
WELL AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 8-10 THOUSAND FEET
WILL SUPPORT BURSTS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOWFALL.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, A MID-LEVEL JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WEAK
CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING, AND AS IT
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH, IT WILL DISRUPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTRODUCE SHEAR, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THE LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER, RAP AND NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DGZ AND INVERSION LEVELS REMAINING ELEVATED MOST OF
THE NIGHT. HREF GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR CUYAHOGA COUNTY E/SE INTO GEAUGA, PORTAGE, AND
TRUMBULL AS WELL AS A PERSISTENT LAKE HURON CONNECTION SWINGING
INTO ERIE AND CRAWFORD PA COUNTIES AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD ALL CAUSE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO STUBBORNLY CONTINUE MOST OF THE
NIGHT, EVEN IN A WEAKING FORM. ADJUSTED ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN CUYAHOGA, GEAUGA,
NORTHERN PORTAGE, AND TRUMBULL COUNTIES, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS CRAWFORD COUNTY PA (HIGHEST NE), AND 2 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS ERIE COUNTY PA (HIGHEST S AND E). ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE 1 INCH OR LESS AROUND THESE AREAS. WITH
THIS BEING SAID, EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR GEAUGA AND SOUTHERN
ASHTABULA COUNTIES TO 09Z (4 AM) FRIDAY TO MATCH THE END TIMES
OF THE HEADLINES IN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. INVERSION LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET AFTER 10Z FRIDAY WILL FINALLY
SHUT DOWN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY MID MORNING.
AS TOUCHED ON ABOVE, THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SO LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 30, WITH ONLY 0.1 INCH OR LESS
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL SET UP BRIEFLY DRY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED H5 CLOSED LOW
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DRAGS AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FROM A
135-145 KNOT H3 JET STREAK WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT, SO HAVE CHANCE POPS GRADUALLY MOVING
INTO NORTHERN OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A WELL-
ALIGNED WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LEAD TO A STRONG LAKE-
EFFECT BAND DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ERIE, AND THIS BAND COULD PUSH
ONSHORE IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY, SO
HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THERE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE ARCTIC FRONT DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH AND
CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY. DETAILS IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND EXACT TIMING
REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT THE COMBINATION OF A BURST OF SNOW WITH
THE FRONT FUSING WITH A LAKE-EFFECT BAND PUSHING INLAND WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A SHORT WINDOW OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATES
SATURDAY MORNING IN MUCH OF NE OHIO AND NW PA AS THE BAND PUSHES
INLAND. W TO WNW FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN
SET UP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, SO IMPACTFUL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
COULD CONTINUE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH NW PA AT TIMES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER A BRIEF LULL. IF THIS WERE NOT
ENOUGH, ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SUPPORTING ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME
AREAWIDE SNOW ACCUMULATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE-EFFECT. NBM PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL OF 3
INCHES OR GREATER HAS BEEN TRENDING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO, SO HAVE SOME 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 30 AS A STARTING POINT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS FARTHER
NORTH. REGARDLESS OF EXACT AMOUNTS, IT WILL SNOW IN ALL AREAS IN
SOME CAPACITY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS, SO SOME
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AREAWIDE.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER, BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TURN NNW FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONT, WITH 850 MB
TEMPS CRASHING TO -20 C. THIS WILL PUSH ONGOING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF CLEVELAND FARTHER WEST INTO THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT, WITH
MULTI-BANDED LAKE-EFFECT IMPACTING BOTH THE INLAND PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY SNOWBELTS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS LOOKS VERY DRY, SO THIS MAY LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF BANDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THE
COMBINATION OF THE SNOW SATURDAY AND LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY NECCESITATE HEADLINES THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, AS SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE IN THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELTS
THIS WEEKEND.
FINALLY, THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE YOUNG WINTER
SEASON, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/UPPER 20S SATURDAY FALLING INTO
THE MID TEENS/LOW 20S SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BELOW -5 F IN SOME AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING AND BELOW 0 F SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN NE OHIO AND
NW PA MONDAY IN CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE DEEP EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT, BUT A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WILL SHUT DOWN THE ACTIVITY. THIS HIGH WILL SET UP
OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST FOR MID AND LATE WEEK, AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW THE ARCTIC AIR TO RETREAT AS MILDER PACIFIC-
BASED AIR TAKES OVER. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 20S MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S TUESDAY, WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO
MID 40S THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERCAST SKIES WERE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST CEILINGS
WERE 1500 TO 4000 FT. SNOWBANDS WILL LOWER VISIBILITY VALUES AND
CEILINGS AND THIS FLUCTUATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH 21Z. TAFS
PRIMARILY CONTAIN MVFR VISIBILITIES, WHICH IS DUE TO THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF IFR-PRODUCING SNOWBANDS.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS LIKELY IN PERIODS OF SNOW AS A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE
IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE NEAR AND EAST OF VERMILION, THOUGH
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH PEAK WIND SPEEDS OF
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH AND
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WAVES OF 5-9
FEET ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS GENERALLY BECOMES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ013-014.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ144-
145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...FZ
MARINE...FZ
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