243
FXUS61 KCLE 121148
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
648 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXIT TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER AND PERIODIC CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
MOVES E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY STABILIZING
SUBSIDENCE. LINGERING AND LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW (LES) STREAMING
GENERALLY SE'WARD AMIDST A SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST WNW'ERLY TO
NW'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER/DOWNWIND OF ~3C LAKE ERIE
SHOULD END BY 7 AM EST OR SO THIS MORNING, AS WEAK LAKE-INDUCED
CAPE (LICAPE) WANES VIA SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACCOMPANYING THE BUILDING
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH. THUS, THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LATE
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20'S TO LOWER
30'S AS AN ABNORMALLY-COLD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER NORTHERN OH AND
NW PA.
TONIGHT, THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXITS E'WARD AND
GIVES WAY TO CYCLONIC W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGHING OVERSPREADS OUR CWA GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.
MOISTENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO
BLOSSOM OVER NE OH AND NW PA AFTER ROUGHLY 2 AM SATURDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION, 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -10C
OVER/DOWNWIND OF ~3C LAKE ERIE, LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, AND WEAK
LAKE-INDUCED CAPE (LICAPE) WILL ALLOW LES TO BLOSSOM THIS
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A SW'ERLY TO
WSW'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF LES TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY. HOWEVER, AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK, THE LES SHOULD BRUSH THE LAKESHORE
FROM NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY TO ERIE COUNTY, PA AS MEAN
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TOWARD W'ERLY. THE LES SHOULD BE
STEADY TO HEAVY AT TIMES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS, WHICH SUGGEST LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MAJOR AXIS OR AXES OF LES BANDING
WILL RESULT IN A CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE (I.E. ALLOW MODERATE TO
STRONG ASCENT TO BE MAXIMIZED IN A CLOUDY DGZ AT LEAST 0.5 TO 1
KM DEEP). ANY NIGHTTIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ONE INCH OR
LESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE 15F TO 25F RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
- WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT OF NE
OH/NW PA AND CUYAHOGA COUNTY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST
THIS MONDAY
ON SATURDAY, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS
OUR REGION BETWEEN ABOUT DAYBREAK AND LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD LAG
THE SURFACE FRONT'S PASSAGE BY SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED AND
PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT'S
PASSAGE. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE THE ONGOING LES FOR A TIME. IN ADDITION,
THE LES SHOULD SETTLE S'WARD INTO OUR PRIMARY SNOWBELT COUNTIES
AND VICINITY AS THE FRONT'S PASSAGE CAUSES MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TO VEER TO W'ERLY AND THEN WNW'ERLY, LICAPE REMAINS WEAK, AND
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PLUMMET TO NEAR
15C BELOW ZERO BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LES WILL BE STEADY TO
HEAVY AT TIMES DUE, IN PART TO A CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE. IN
ADDITION, ANOTHER AND STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND VICINITY AS
SATURDAY ELAPSES. THE APPROACH OF THE LATTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BACK FROM W'ERLY TO WSW'ERLY
OVER PORTIONS OF OUR REGION AND ALLOW FRONTOGENETICAL
CONVERGENCE ALOFT TO DEVELOP, WHICH COMBINED WITH MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD SNOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION GENERALLY FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM ABOUT MIDDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD BE STEADY TO HEAVY AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30, WHERE THE
FGEN ALOFT AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE TO
STRONG ASCENT TO BE MAXIMIZED IN A CLOUDY DGZ AT LEAST 1 TO 2 KM
DEEP, WHICH IS A CONCERNING CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE. WILL LET THE
DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE TRENDS IN NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT WE MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SNOWBELT COUNTIES OUTSIDE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AND FOR OUR COUNTIES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30. NOTE: THE SEEDER-FEEDER
PROCESS AND CONTINUED PRESENCE OF WEAK LICAPE OVER LAKE ERIE
SHOULD ENHANCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LES FURTHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH SUNSET. SATURDAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S AND BE "WARMEST" FARTHER
EAST, WHERE A LATER COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR.
DURING SATURDAY EVENING, THE LATTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD SWEEP GENERALLY E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION AND BE FOLLOWED
BY RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING GRADUALLY FROM THE
WEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD SNOW PRECEDING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S AXIS SHOULD EXIT OUR REGION GENERALLY FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD BE STEADY TO
HEAVY AT TIMES DUE TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE.
THE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD TOTAL 1-5" OUTSIDE LES AND THE
GREATEST OF THESE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE REALIZED ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30. ONCE THE WIDESPREAD SNOW ENDS, ODDS
FAVOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, OUTSIDE LINGERING LES,
AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTICULARLY-COLD AIR MASS.
ACCORDINGLY, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE 5F TO 15F
RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, RESPECTIVELY. DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 15F TO 25F RANGE ON SUNDAY. NOTE:
WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 0F TO -10F ARE FORECAST AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, RESPECTIVELY.
AS FOR THE LES, IT WILL BE STEADY TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND PERSIST
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT OF NE OH/NW PA AND VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW VARIES BETWEEN WNW'ERLY
AND NNW'ERLY, WEAK TO MODERATE LICAPE EXISTS AMIDST NET LOW-
LEVEL CAA AND 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING FURTHER TO NEAR -20C,
UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO LAKES ST. CLAIR AND HURON
DEVELOP AND ENHANCE LICAPE OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE, AND A
PERIODIC CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE IS LIKELY REALIZED. DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT, THE LES SHOULD SHIFT N'WARD TO THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT AND
VICINITY IN OUR CWA AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO W'ERLY. IN
ADDITION, THE LES SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACCOMPANYING
THE RIDGE, WHICH WILL WEAKEN LICAPE. BETWEEN DAYBREAK SATURDAY
AND DAYBREAK MONDAY, FRESH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 4-12"
IN/NEAR THE SNOWBELT OF NE OH AND NW PA DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF LOCALIZED LES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED WIDESPREAD SNOW. AGAIN,
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP HAVING
TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES OUTSIDE
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH. FIGURED THE WATCH WOULD BE A
GOOD STARTING POINT SINCE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.
ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SHOULD CREST E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN
TO EXIT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THUS, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN
MOST OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD MOVE
SE'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. LES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT
AMIDST AT LEAST WEAK LICAPE AND A SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST MEAN
LOW- LEVEL FLOW THAT SHOULD VARY BETWEEN SW'ERLY AND W'ERLY.
THUS, THE LES SHOULD BE TRANSIENT. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS, MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO OCCUR OUTSIDE THE LES, ESPECIALLY IN NE OH AND NW PA. IN
ADDITION, THE SEEDER- FEEDER PROCESS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND ENHANCE THE LES FOR A TIME. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE LES SHOULD WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT AND END BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY
AMIDST WEAKENING LICAPE DUE, IN PART, TO A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE 20'S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE 10F TO 20F
RANGE MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER THIS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
CONTINUES TO EXIT E'WARD. IN ADDITION, NET AND STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20'S TO MID 30'S ON
TUESDAY AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20'S TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, A COLD
FRONT SHOULD APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
VICINITY ON THURSDAY AS NET LOW-LEVEL WAA PERSISTS IN NORTHERN
OH AND NW PA. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30'S TO LOWER
40'S ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOWER 40'S TO NEAR 50F ON THURSDAY.
A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF
SHOULD UNDERGO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS ALOFT, AND ALLOW PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN TO
AFFECT OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
ENOUGH NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY ALLOW WET SNOW TO MIX WITH THE
RAIN AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR NW PA.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN WITH CEILINGS IN THE 3,000-4,000 FT RANGE.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY IN THAT RANGE, WITH TAFS
INDICATING BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING BUT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
UNLIKELY.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 1,500 TO 2,500 FT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
DEVELOPS OVER LAKE ERIE, WHICH MAY MOVE ONSHORE TO NEAR KERI RIGHT
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WINDS OF AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH AREAWIDE SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS CONDITIONS
IMPROVE ON LAKE ERIE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE RELATIVELY CALM
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WIND
SPEEDS OF 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THESE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD RESULT IN LOW
WATER IN THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE, WITH WATER LEVELS AT TOLEDO
APPROACHING THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION SATURDAY MORNING.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS BECOME WESTERLY, AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THOUGH COULD APPROACH 30
KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
BASIN WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 6-9 FEET MAY BE POSSIBLE. AN EXTENDED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF LAKE ERIE IS LIKELY
NEEDED STARTING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT TO CAPTURE THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ONCE
AGAIN AND LOW WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN BASIN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR OHZ011>014-089.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA
NEAR TERM...JASZKA
SHORT TERM...JASZKA
LONG TERM...JASZKA
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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