243
FXUS61 KCLE 132121
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
421 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH LINGERS NEAR LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
- LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NWPA UNTIL 7
AM EST MONDAY MORNING.
- LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PRIMARY
SNOWBELT OF NEOH INCLUDING CUYAHOGA COUNTY UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY MORNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SECONDARY
SNOWBELT OF NEOH UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY MORNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STARK AND
MAHONING COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY EVENING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY MORNING.
THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THIS WINTER SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING INTO
OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
BRINGING DOWN ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST AND WILL CRANK UP THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
A RATHER DECENT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL AND TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW WILL IMPACT THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT AND
AREAS THAT ARE NOT IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT,
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE
WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE SNOW SHOWER AND
SQUALLS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO
AROUND -22C IF NOT A LITTLE COLDER. BOTH THE PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL THE AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT
THAT HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL SEE GENERALLY 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOWFALL TOTAL FROM BOTH THE SYSTEM SNOW AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT THAT
HAVE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL SEE GENERALLY 6 TO 12
INCHES OF SNOWFALL TODAY FROM BOTH SYSTEM SNOW AND THE LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE FEW SPOTS IN THE
SNOWBELT OF NWPA THAT END UP OVER A FOOT OF SNOWFALL TOTAL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THIS ARCTIC BLAST WILL THE VERY COLD
WEATHER AND WIND CHILLS TO DEAL WITH. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. MOST AREAS TOMORROW WILL NOT MAKE
IT OUT OF THE TEENS FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE -10F TO 10 F LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THERE WILL BE BREAK IN THIS RECENT ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT OUT AND THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BECOME WILL MORE ZONAL FROM WEST TO EAST. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE EAST COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE
COLD AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SLOWLY MODIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL STILL
BE VERY COLD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THE HIGH TEMPS BY
TUESDAY WILL CRACK THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FAST PACE AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT ZONAL WITH SEVERAL MORE STORM SYSTEMS RIDING THE
JETSTREAM FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG OR NEAR THE U.S./CANADA
BORDER. ON THE FRONT END THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE A BRIEF
WARM UP TO ABOVE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER
AIR BROUGHT FROM CANADA. WE ACTUALLY HAVE MORE POTENTIAL AND
HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER THAN WINTRY WEATHER WITH THESE
SYSTEMS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH CEILINGS AROUND
1.5KFT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
MOST SITES. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING DOWN VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE A
TIMES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
BY 05-08Z TOMORROW MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD SNOW IMPACTING THE SNOW BELTS AND FURTHER
INLAND AT TIMES. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOWARD
KCLE IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE WIND DIRECTION, THOUGH FOR AREAS
EASTWARD, EXPECT IMPACTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS KCAK AND KYNG BY
MID MORNING TOMORROW. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE EFFECT BAND TO
COME OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IMPACTING KTOL AND KFDY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THIS.
WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AT LOCATION ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE FROM KCLE TO KERI, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO BE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN STEADILY
INCREASING AND CURRENTLY ARE AT 20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 30
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND AS A RESULT, WAVES HAVE
BUILT TO 5-8 FEET. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE ZONES FOR LAKE ERIE DUE TO THE ELEVATED
WINDS AND WAVES. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE WESTERN WINDS, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER EAST OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. AS OF 230PM, THE WATER LEVEL IS AT 6.3
INCHES BELOW THE LOW WATER DATUM WITH THE CRITICAL MARK AT 8
INCHES BELOW LOW WATER DATUM. IF THE WATER LEVELS DO GO BELOW
THE CRITICAL MARK, IT WILL BE BRIEF AS WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE GOING INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY
HAZARD TO BE AWARE OF IS FREEZING SPRAY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS. WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED DOWN BELOW 40
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE AND WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND WINDS STAYING ABOVE 20 KNOTS,
THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
WINDS WILL START TO VEER TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN BRIEFLY BY MONDAY MORNING
TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A TIMEFRAME DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASIN, BUT WILL DECREASE BY THE EVENING. DURING THE DAY MONDAY,
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
25-30 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT DOWN
TO 10-15 KNOTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WAVES WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED AT 6-
9 FEET, BUT MAINLY IN THE OPEN WATER ZONES WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALES ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ010-
020>023.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ029>031-
036>038-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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