759
FXUS61 KCLE 140029
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEAR TERM UPDATE AND 0Z TAF DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH LINGERS NEAR LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
- LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NWPA UNTIL 7
AM EST MONDAY MORNING.
- LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PRIMARY
SNOWBELT OF NEOH INCLUDING CUYAHOGA COUNTY UNTIL 7 AM EST
MONDAY MORNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SECONDARY
SNOWBELT OF NEOH UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY MORNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STARK AND
MAHONING COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY EVENING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY MORNING.
7:25 PM UPDATE:
THE CLIPPER IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
EARLY REPORTS FROM BETWEEN 5PM AND 7PM RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 2.5"
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH CLOSER TO 4" ALREADY PER ONE
SPOTTER IN KNOX COUNTY. IT IS STILL SNOWING, WITH LOCATIONS EAST
OF I-71 LIKELY TO ADD ANOTHER INCH OR TWO (TOWARDS YOUNGSTOWN)
OF SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER BEFORE IT QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71 ARE ALREADY ON THE DOWNTREND
AND LIKELY DON'T HAVE MORE THAN ANOTHER TR-1" LEFT. PARTS OF
ERIE COUNTY PA HAVE ALSO SEEN HIGHER REPORTS UPWARDS OF 5" DUE
TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. OVERALL THE CLIPPER IS PERFORMING
NEAR EXPECTATIONS, WITH SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
LAKESHORE PERHAPS OFF TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER START.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, THE CLIPPER SNOW WILL NOT BE LONG FOR THIS
AREA AS THE JET SUPPORT QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND AS DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ROADS ARE VARIED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SECONDARY AND
LESS TRAVELED ROADS GENERALLY WORSE OFF THAN THE MAIN ROADS.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT, EXPECT SLOW BUT GENERALLY MANAGEABLE
TRAVEL TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT COLD TEMPERATURES DOING ROAD CREWS NO FAVORS.
UNLESS THERE IS A PUSH FROM SURROUNDING WFOS TO DROP ADVISORIES
FOR THE CLIPPER EARLY WE WILL LIKELY LEAVE THEM UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUED LESS-THAN-STELLAR ROAD
CONDITIONS EVEN AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN.
AS FOR THE LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW, WSW FLOW BANDING DID HIT
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY PA HALF DECENTLY TODAY, BRINGING REPORTS OF
2 TO 5" OF SNOWFALL THERE. OTHERWISE, HAVE SEEN SOME MODERATE
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW DEVELOP NEAR THE CLEVELAND AREA AND UP THE
I-90 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST OH THIS EVENING AMID WESTERLY FLOW. A
SUBTLE TROUGH WILL PUSH ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
(THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM) AND SHOULD PUSH THE LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CLEVELAND AREA AND SNOWBELT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AS SOME BRIEF
SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, SIGNS POINT TO A COUPLE OF
BANDS (PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS LORAIN COUNTY) TAKING SHAPE IN
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PRE-DAWN SUNDAY.
GOOD SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTIONS, AND
MODERATE TO EXTREME LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY BENEATH THE CORE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALL FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SUNDAY.
THE ONE POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE IS THERE WILL BE A FEW SUBTLE TROUGHS
THAT PUSH THROUGH, SO WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND BANDS MAY
STRUGGLE TO SIT IN A SPOT FOR TOO LONG AT A TIME...HOWEVER,
EXPECT VERY SQUALL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
SNOWBELT, PERHAPS PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN
AT TIMES, ON SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO PICK UP TO 25-35 MPH
WHICH WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY IN BANDS AND BLOW SNOW ON
THE GROUND AROUND. STILL AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN BAND
PLACEMENT AND PERSISTENCE ON SUNDAY TO UPGRADE ANY ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS AT THIS EXACT MOMENT.
HOWEVER, AM WORRIED ABOUT SIGNS OF A BAND FROM LORAIN COUNTY
INTO MEDINA-SUMMIT-WESTERN PORTAGE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY, AND THEN A BAND PERHAPS
FROM THE EASTERN CLEVELAND SUBURBS THAT EXTENDS INTO PORTAGE AT
TIMES MAINLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ALSO WILL NEED TO SEE IF A
LAKE HURON CONNECTED BAND MAY CLIP TRUMBULL COUNTY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THESE WILL ALL BE THINGS WE CLOSELY
EVALUATE WITH INCOMING GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THIS WINTER SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING INTO
OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
BRINGING DOWN ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST AND WILL CRANK UP THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
A RATHER DECENT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL AND TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW WILL IMPACT THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT AND
AREAS THAT ARE NOT IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT,
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE
WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE SNOW SHOWER AND
SQUALLS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO
AROUND -22C IF NOT A LITTLE COLDER. BOTH THE PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL THE AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT
THAT HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL SEE GENERALLY 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOWFALL TOTAL FROM BOTH THE SYSTEM SNOW AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT THAT
HAVE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL SEE GENERALLY 6 TO 12
INCHES OF SNOWFALL TODAY FROM BOTH SYSTEM SNOW AND THE LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE FEW SPOTS IN THE
SNOWBELT OF NWPA THAT END UP OVER A FOOT OF SNOWFALL TOTAL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THIS ARCTIC BLAST WILL THE VERY COLD
WEATHER AND WIND CHILLS TO DEAL WITH. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. MOST AREAS TOMORROW WILL NOT MAKE
IT OUT OF THE TEENS FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE -10F TO 10 F LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THERE WILL BE BREAK IN THIS RECENT ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT OUT AND THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BECOME WILL MORE ZONAL FROM WEST TO EAST. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE EAST COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE
COLD AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SLOWLY MODIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL STILL
BE VERY COLD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THE HIGH TEMPS BY
TUESDAY WILL CRACK THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FAST PACE AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT ZONAL WITH SEVERAL MORE STORM SYSTEMS RIDING THE
JETSTREAM FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG OR NEAR THE U.S./CANADA
BORDER. ON THE FRONT END THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE A BRIEF
WARM UP TO ABOVE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER
AIR BROUGHT FROM CANADA. WE ACTUALLY HAVE MORE POTENTIAL AND
HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER THAN WINTRY WEATHER WITH THESE
SYSTEMS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STEADY SNOW WITH A CLIPPER BRINGING IFR TO LIFR VSBY AND
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS TO THE ENTIRE AREA, OUTSIDE OF EXTREME
NORTHWEST OH (SUCH AS TOL) WHERE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED
VFR TO MAINLY PREVAIL. SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH 5 OR 6Z, ALLOWING MOST TERMINALS TO
BRIEFLY RETURN TO VFR VSBY WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ATTENTION QUICKLY
TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT, WHICH WILL IMPACT ERI AND CLE MOST
FREQUENTLY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH, BANDS WILL GET
PUSHED WELL-INLAND TOWARDS CAK AND YNG LATER SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS WELL. AS ALWAYS, LAKE EFFECT
WILL BRING WIDELY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
OH AND NORTHWEST PA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH IFR TO LIFR
VSBY AND QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BENEATH BANDS, WITH LITTLE
VSBY RESTRICTION OUTSIDE OF BANDS. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT
OFF OF LAKE ERIE, SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
INTO THE TOL/FDY/MFD AREA AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH VFR VSBY WILL LARGELY PREVAIL. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE FAIRLY PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-12KT WITH A FEW 20KT GUSTS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE CONTINUE TONIGHT, SHIFTING A BIT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10-18KT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN STEADILY
INCREASING AND CURRENTLY ARE AT 20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 30
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND AS A RESULT, WAVES HAVE
BUILT TO 5-8 FEET. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE ZONES FOR LAKE ERIE DUE TO THE ELEVATED
WINDS AND WAVES. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE WESTERN WINDS, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER EAST OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. AS OF 230PM, THE WATER LEVEL IS AT 6.3
INCHES BELOW THE LOW WATER DATUM WITH THE CRITICAL MARK AT 8
INCHES BELOW LOW WATER DATUM. IF THE WATER LEVELS DO GO BELOW
THE CRITICAL MARK, IT WILL BE BRIEF AS WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE GOING INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY
HAZARD TO BE AWARE OF IS FREEZING SPRAY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS. WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED DOWN BELOW 40
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE AND WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND WINDS STAYING ABOVE 20 KNOTS,
THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
WINDS WILL START TO VEER TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN BRIEFLY BY MONDAY MORNING
TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A TIMEFRAME DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASIN, BUT WILL DECREASE BY THE EVENING. DURING THE DAY MONDAY,
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
25-30 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT DOWN
TO 10-15 KNOTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WAVES WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED AT 6-
9 FEET, BUT MAINLY IN THE OPEN WATER ZONES WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTH. THERE IS
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALES ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ010-
020>023.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ029>031-
036>038-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77/SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...23
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