355
FXUS61 KCLE 140502
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1202 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH LINGERS NEAR LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
- PORTAGE COUNTY UPGRADED TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH
7 AM EST MONDAY MORNING.
- LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PRIMARY
SNOWBELT OF NEOH AND NWPA, INCLUDING CUYAHOGA COUNTY, UNTIL 7
AM EST MONDAY MORNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE
SECONDARY SNOWBELT OF NEOH UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY MORNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STARK AND
MAHONING COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY EVENING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY MORNING.
10:25 PM UPDATE:
CLIPPER SNOW IS ON THE DOWNTREND. PRELIMINARY REPORTS GENERALLY
RANGE WIDELY BETWEEN NEAR 0" IN TOLEDO TO 1-4" ELSEWHERE, WITH A
COUPLE OF 5-6" REPORTS DOWN IN MARION/KNOX COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS THOUGH MANY
ROADS, ESPECIALLY SECONDARY AND MORE RURAL ONES, WILL REMAIN
SNOW COVERED AND SLICK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL
DIP TO 0 TO -10 DEGREES AREA-WIDE OVERNIGHT.
THE ATTENTION IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WITH THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE, WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED PORTAGE
COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. WE MAY UPGRADE AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
THOUGH PORTAGE COUNTY IS THE COUNTY WITH THE MOST CONSISTENT
MODEL SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED AND LIKELY INTENSE BANDING ON SUNDAY,
WHICH IS WHY WE JUMPED ON THAT UPGRADE BEFORE ANY OTHERS.
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW HAS LOST A BIT OF ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST
HOUR AS WINDS HAVE VEERED BEHIND A TROUGH PASSAGE...A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH AND CLIPPER ARE ALSO
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE LAKE. HOWEVER, THERE STILL IS SOME
(RATHER DISORGANIZED) ENHANCEMENT PRESENT FROM NORTHERN LORAIN
COUNTY ACROSS CUYAHOGA COUNTY AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN LAKE,
GEAUGA, INLAND ASHTABULA, AND WHILE NOT SEEN WELL ON RADAR,
PRESUMABLY MUCH OF ERIE COUNTY PA SOUTH OF I-90. WHILE THE LAKE
SNOW WILL NOT ENTIRELY STOP, THIS GENERAL LULL MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY VEER *SLIGHTLY*
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND PUSH THE LAKE SNOW A
FEW MILES FARTHER SOUTH, BUT IN GENERAL IT LIKELY WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY STATE IN TERMS OF LOCATION OVERNIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT LIKELY BEGINS RE-ORGANIZING AND INTENSIFYING PRE-
DAWN SUNDAY, PEAKING IN INTENSITY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WINDS WILL START WEST-NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY, GRADUALLY VEERING
MORE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN BRIEFLY NORTH-
NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING. PEAK INSTABILITY, MOISTURE, AND
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY
BEFORE DECREASING QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY SHIFTING WINDS
DUE TO A FEW DIFFERENT TROUGH PASSAGES ON SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
STRONG FLOW AND A SHORTER FETCH, MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR BANDING TO
LOCK INTO ONE LOCATION FOR TOO LONG AT ONCE AND WILL CERTAINLY
PUSH HEAVIER SNOW WELL INLAND. STILL, THE GOOD SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
AND MODERATE TO EXTREME LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY SUGGEST SNOW
BANDS WILL BE VERY INTENSE WHERE THEY SETUP, WITH TIES TO
UPSTREAM GREAT LAKES (INCLUDING LAKES MICHIGAN, ST. CLAIR,
SUPERIOR AND HURON) LIKELY DICTATING WHERE THOSE BANDS DEVELOP.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A WNW-ESE ORIENTED BAND LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON CUTTING ACROSS PARTS OF LORAIN,
MEDINA, SUMMIT, AND INTO PORTAGE. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OF A BAND
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUYAHOGA/WESTERN GEAUGA INTO PORTAGE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION WILL LIKELY
LARGELY FOCUS IN NORTHWEST PA, BUT MAY DRIFT INTO EASTERN
ASHTABULA AND TRUMBULL FOR A FEW HOURS LATE SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
SIGNAL FOR BANDING INTO THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT IS PORTAGE, HENCE
THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND LES WARNING UPGRADE...THOUGH WE WILL
ALSO BE CLOSELY EVALUATING MEDINA, SUMMIT, AND TRUMBULL TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WARNING UPGRADES.
GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, COLD
TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG WINDS, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE
INTENSE WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND PRODUCE NEAR-
ZERO VISIBILITY ON SUNDAY, WITH THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CARRY
FAR INLAND. THOSE WHO WILL BE TRAVELING OR OUT AND ABOUT ON
SUNDAY WILL NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THESE VERY CHANGEABLE, AND
WITHIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS, CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THIS WINTER SEASON SO FAR IS MOVING INTO
OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
BRINGING DOWN ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST AND WILL CRANK UP THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
A RATHER DECENT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL AND TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW WILL IMPACT THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT AND
AREAS THAT ARE NOT IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT,
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE
WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE SNOW SHOWER AND
SQUALLS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO
AROUND -22C IF NOT A LITTLE COLDER. BOTH THE PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY SNOWBELT WILL SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL THE AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT
THAT HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL SEE GENERALLY 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOWFALL TOTAL FROM BOTH THE SYSTEM SNOW AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT THAT
HAVE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL SEE GENERALLY 6 TO 12
INCHES OF SNOWFALL TODAY FROM BOTH SYSTEM SNOW AND THE LAKE
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE FEW SPOTS IN THE
SNOWBELT OF NWPA THAT END UP OVER A FOOT OF SNOWFALL TOTAL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THIS ARCTIC BLAST WILL THE VERY COLD
WEATHER AND WIND CHILLS TO DEAL WITH. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. MOST AREAS TOMORROW WILL NOT MAKE
IT OUT OF THE TEENS FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE -10F TO 10 F LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THERE WILL BE BREAK IN THIS RECENT ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT OUT AND THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BECOME WILL MORE ZONAL FROM WEST TO EAST. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE EAST COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE
COLD AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SLOWLY MODIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL STILL
BE VERY COLD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THE HIGH TEMPS BY
TUESDAY WILL CRACK THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FAST PACE AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT ZONAL WITH SEVERAL MORE STORM SYSTEMS RIDING THE
JETSTREAM FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG OR NEAR THE U.S./CANADA
BORDER. ON THE FRONT END THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE A BRIEF
WARM UP TO ABOVE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER
AIR BROUGHT FROM CANADA. WE ACTUALLY HAVE MORE POTENTIAL AND
HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN RATHER THAN WINTRY WEATHER WITH THESE
SYSTEMS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STEADY SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS EXITED, LEAVING MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND SHIFTING THE FOCUS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MOST SITES
WILL HANG ON TO AN MVFR CEILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING MAY OCCUR AT TOL, FDY, AND MFD AT TIMES
ON SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MOST PROMINENT AT CLE AND ERI,
THOUGH WILL PUSH WELL INLAND ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST
PA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH IMPACTS LIKELY AT CAK AND YNG
LATER SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST LAKE
EFFECT WILL LIKELY FOCUS SOUTH OF ERI, THOUGH BANDING MAY IMPACT
CLE AT TIMES BETWEEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODS OF VSBY UNDER 1/2SM AND POTENTIAL FOR QUICK SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THOUGH, IT'S
POSSIBLE THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDING IS SLIGHTLY WEST OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE CLE AIRFIELD. LAKE EFFECT LOSES INTENSITY AND
FOCUSES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-12KT WITH A FEW 20KT GUSTS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE CONTINUE TONIGHT, SHIFTING A BIT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10-18KT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO
15-20 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS, AND WAVES TO 5-8 FEET.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
NEARSHORE ZONES OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AND
WAVES. WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT, OR BELOW, 40 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LAKE, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MINOR RISK FOR FREEZING SPRAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN, BUT WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY THE EVENING AND
BECOMING WESTERLY. WAVES WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE FROM 2-4 FEET SUNDAY
TO 1-3 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON
MONDAY AND INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS. WAVES BUILD TO 3-6 FEET IN
THE NEARSHORE ZONES, AND 6-9 FEET THE OPEN WATER ZONES.
OCCASIONAL WAVES 11-15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES ACROSS THE
LAKE ON THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ010-020-
021-023.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
022-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ029>031-
036>038-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ032-033.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77/SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...27
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