952
FXUS61 KCLE 150247
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
9:45PM UPDATE:
DROPPED ALL OF THE REMAINING OHIO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. LEFT
THE WARNINGS GOING IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FOR NOW GIVEN A
BAND OF SNOW WITH CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON THAT MAY STILL BE
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW.
LAKE EFFECT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED THE LAST FEW HOURS, THOUGH
HAS NOT COMPLETELY STOPPED. THE MOST "INTENSE" FEATURE IS A BAND
OF SNOW WITH CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON, THAT APPEARS TO BE
CUTTING ACROSS FAR WESTERN ERIE COUNTY AND CENTRAL CRAWFORD
COUNTY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING AROUND, GRADUALLY TO
THE EAST, INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA WHERE THIS BAND IS MOST
PERSISTENT. ELSEWHERE, ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED. A
SLIGHT UPTICK HAS BEEN NOTED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE ACROSS
OHIO, AS ONE LAST LITTLE PIECE OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WORKS
THROUGH AND AS WINDS SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY BEGINS LENGTHENING
THE FETCH AND INCREASING SHORELINE CONVERGENCE. ANY "BETTER"
BURSTS OF SNOW IN OHIO SHOULD BE TRANSIENT AS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
FOCUSING WEST OF CLEVELAND CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. ANOTHER FLUFFY INCH OF SNOW MAY FALL ON A LOCALIZED
BASIS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY,
THOUGH THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS GOING.
STILL, LINGERING SNOWY/ICY SIDE AND SECONDARY ROADS WILL BE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY, SO ANYONE WALKING OR
DRIVING WILL WANT TO CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION. LOWS ARE STILL ON
TRACK FOR THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID 10S, WITH WIND CHILLS
-5 TO +5 OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHAT'S LEFT OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IMPACTING THE I-90
CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE CONTINUING
TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER MAY
GRAZE EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH AND
GENERALLY CONFINED TO EAST OF I-79 IN NORTHWEST PA. AS MENTIONED
BELOW, LAKE EFFECT MAY TRY SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN LAKESHORE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT, BUT WILL STRUGGLE
TO PUSH BACK ONSHORE AND SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ITS AXIS
SITUATED DOWN THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. CONCURRENTLY, AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH CURRENTLY
LINGERS OVER LAKE ERIE SUPPORTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO EAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THIS EVENING
FLOWING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH THAT WILL PROMOTE SUFFICIENT LAKE
INDUCED CAPE. AN UPSTREAM MOISTURE FLOW CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR AT TIMES STEMMING FROM TWO LOCATIONS: A WESTERN BAND ENHANCED
BY LAKE ST. CLAIR AND AN EASTERN BAND ENHANCED BY LAKE HURON. THE
BULK OF THE SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN ALREADY FOR THE EVENT, THOUGH WITH
THESE CURRENT BANDS SETTING UP, AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL
ACROSS EASTERN CUYAHOGA THROUGH EASTERN ASHTABULA COUNTIES. SNOW
RATES WILL BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO
LESSEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS SOME OF THE SUPPORTING MOISTURE PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND REDUCES THE OVERALL EFFICIENCY OF SNOW GROWTH.
BANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF-SHORE OVER LAKE ERIE
AS LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW SHIFTS TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY, THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OF OFF
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, WILL WAVER BETWEEN
BEING OFF SHORE AND INLAND. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BE
MORE WESTERLY BRINGING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO BE BACK ONSHORE
IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MODEL SKEW-TS
INDICATE THAT THE THERE WILL BE A SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS AS THIS
BAND MOVES INLAND AND ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE THE SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TUESDAY AND THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF. ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS WILL
BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES.
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT, THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS DOWN INTO EASTERN OHIO, BUT BY MONDAY, QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
TONIGHT AS WELL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND ZERO AND BELOW
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ON MONDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AGAIN ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 20S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION EFFECTIVELY ENDING
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY,
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AND WITH SOUTHERLY WAA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE HIGH. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S. ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION THAT BRING A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THERE IS
BIT A DISAGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND IF IT WILL EVEN REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE ERIE. REGARDLESS,
THIS FEATURE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE OUT AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE OVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AND IN THE
MID 30S IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL FOLLOW THE WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EARLY THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND EXITS TO THE EAST. AT THE
SURFACE, A FAIRLY POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE AND PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG, SOUTHERLY, LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION JUMPING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND EVEN LOW
50S. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE TO START THE
EVEN WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
STRONG CAA. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER TO FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO ONLY SNOW AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS BY THE WET BULB EFFECT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STAY SATURATED ENOUGH ACCOMPANIED
WITH CAA OVER THE LAKE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. GIVEN THE EVENT IS
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, DETAILS ON THE SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
IN EARLY SATURDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION.
FOR TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ONWARD, FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY
OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM, TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN UPPER 20S.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY AFFECTING CAK AND YNG (HAVE
BEEN IN AND OUT AT CLE AND ERI, BUT FOCUSING FARTHER INLAND) ARE
GENERALLY ON THE DOWNSWING THIS EVENING, THOUGH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. WILL WATCH A BAND OF
SNOW WITH CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON TO DRIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA
THROUGH ABOUT 9Z, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IMPACT AT ERI LATER
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MINOR LAKE EFFECT WILL FOCUS ALONG THE
EASTERN LAKESHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, PERHAPS
BRINGING LOCALIZED VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT MAY ALSO IMPACT ERI
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT, MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST AT MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
INTO MONDAY. LOCATIONS SUCH AS CAK, CLE, AND YNG WILL TAKE A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY MONDAY TO RETURN TO VFR. SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT MAY CLIP ERI MONDAY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH IS LARGELY NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT
GENERALLY 6-12KT, INCREASING TO 10-18KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NE OH
AND NW PA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS 20-28KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRIEFLY LULL TO 10-20KT
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE RAMPING UP TO
20-30KT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY PUSH
TOWARDS A LOW-END GALE MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE OPEN WATERS
OFF OF PA AND NY. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15KT OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN AS POSTED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH A
PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT. PROBABILITIES FOR A GALE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY GALE HEADLINES. 5 TO 9 FOOT WAVES IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP TO 6
TO 11 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IS POSSIBLE BOTH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING CLOSE
TO FREEZING. WATER LEVELS ON THE WEST END MAY DIP TO NEAR THE
CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING,
THOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT'S MOST LIKELY TO STAY JUST ABOVE IT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
SHIFTING MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY PEAK
IN THE 20-30KT RANGE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE WEDNESDAY, STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT, PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RAMP UP STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
PEAKING LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE SHIFTING MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. PROBABILITIES FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
ELEVATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY
NIGHT, AND THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CARIES 35-40KT GALES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23/SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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