081
FXUS61 KCLE 151720
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1220 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER LAKE ERIE. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OFF TO THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE IMPACTS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR ALOFT CONTINUES, WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE 850-925 MB LAYER SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR REFLECTIVITY,
ALONG WITH NEARBY OBSERVATIONS, INDICATE LIGHT SNOW RATES
LIKELY LESS THAN A HALF INCH PER HOUR; EVEN SO, LOCAL CAMERAS
SHOW LIGHT SNOW IS STICKING TO ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
CLEVELAND METRO AND IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE TRAFFIC MAPS
INDICATE SLOWER TRAFFIC SPEEDS ACROSS AREA HIGHWAYS. IN THE
IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM, COULD SEE PARTS OF EASTERN CUYAHOGA, LAKE,
GEAUGA, AND ASHTABULA GETTING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO, THOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY CAPTURING THIS CURRENT
ACTIVITY VERY WELL.
AS STEERING FLOW TENDS TO BACK, SHOULD SEE THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS ASHTABULA AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, BEFORE GETTING DISRUPTED. MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO BY 12Z IN SOME PARTS OF NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA, THOUGH LOCAL RADARS ARE OVERSHOOTING THE ACTIVITY
THERE, SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TELL. REGARDLESS, THE 12Z END
TIME FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH, BRINGING A GLANCING BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN ADDITIONAL
DUSTING OF SNOW. ADDED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR A SINGLE SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP OVER
LAKE ERIE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT WESTERN NEW YORK, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW
MODELS THAT BRING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES OF MAINLY ERIE, PA. IF IT DOES, IT WOULD
BRING A DUSTING TO AN INCH (AT MOST) OF SNOW.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND INTO THE UPPER 40S AREAWIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON; BOTH
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 26,
WHICH IS A TRUE TESTAMENT TO HOW COLD IT'S BEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS. COUPLE RELATED FUN CLIMATE FACTS:
*ASSUMING TODAY IS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN, THAT WILL
BE 19 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
*ALL SIX OF OUR CLIMATE SITES ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SNOWFALL!
HOWEVER, WARMTH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY COMES WITH
CONSEQUENCES, AND THAT WILL CERTAINLY BE THE CASE WITH THIS
UPCOMING SYSTEM AS IT'S SET TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. FIRST, STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BOTH
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY, AND WITH
WEST FLOW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN AT LEAST 35-40 MPH GUSTS,
WITH THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTING A 20-40% CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER
THAN 46 MPH (CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY), WHICH IS MOST
PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THURSDAY, AND WITH WEST FLOW MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE NEAR
AND EAST OF CLEVELAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, A SWATH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE CURRENT POP
FORECAST PEAKING AROUND 90% AREAWIDE. QPF IS CURRENTLY AROUND
0.5", WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1" POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS AND
DEW POINTS AROUND 40 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SNOWMELT AS WELL. IT'S UNLIKELY THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR RIVER
FLOODING, BUT IT WILL DEFINITELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SERIOUSLY
MUDDY YARDS.
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRASTIC
DROP IN TEMPERATURE, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S COOLING DOWN TO THE LOW 20S BY THE FRIDAY MORNING PRE-DAWN
HOURS. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW, THOUGH QPF
WILL BE LACKING AT THIS POINT AND A DUSTING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT BEST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, A COLD SHOT OF AIR SWINGS THROUGH ON
FRIDAY, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO AS LOW AS -14
C. ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT, IT
SEEMS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY EVENT RATHER THAN A WARNING EVENT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORTER DURATION (12-18 HOURS). SNOW IS
LIKELY TO SHARPLY END FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA WITH RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT (THOUGH
PROBABLY LESS THAN THURSDAY'S SYSTEM) BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CURRENTLY, A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IS PUSHING EAST OF
I77 AND WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT KCAK, KYNG AND KERI
TO IFR BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BEHIND THIS LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS, REMAINING CLOUDY WITH
CEILINGS CLIMBING TO 5KFT OR HIGHER. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE THE
LAST PUSH OF SNOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KERI WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS BAND PARALLEL
TO THE LAKESHORE NUDGES SOUTH. WHEN NOW SNOWING AT KERI,
CEILING HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING
WHEN THEY FINALLY LIFT A BIT MORE AND CONDITIONS AT KERI IMPROVE
TO VFR.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-13 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME 5-10 KNOTS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT (<5 KTS) OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WINDS GAIN A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE
TO 10-12 KNOTS AGAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY, BUT NOT WITHIN THIS TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP, LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW WITH NON-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SNOWBELT IN NE OH/NW PA ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
FROM MAUMEE BAY TO THE ISLANDS AND UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY FROM THE
ISLANDS TO RIPLEY. A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND
THEN EXITS SLOWLY E'WARD FROM THE LAKE ERIE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
FRESHEN TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THIS MID-MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE INTERACTS WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE E'WARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY. DURING THIS EVENING,
THE SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE GRADUALLY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WAVES AS
LARGE AS 5 TO 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS, BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 FEET OR LESS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, WHEN ANY OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN BASIN. ON TUESDAY, S'ERLY TO
SW'ERLY WINDS FRESHEN TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH A DEEPENING LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
E'WARD FROM SOUTHERN MB AND VICINITY TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WAVES BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 4 TO 9 FEET, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS, AND ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT E'WARD TUESDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT
WILL SWEEP NE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 20 TO 32 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS
STILL APPEARS MINIMAL. WAVES AS LARGE AS 5 TO 11 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY, SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EASE TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING AS A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS E'WARD ACROSS THE LAKE AND A NARROW
RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WAVES AS LARGE AS 5 TO 10
FEET IN THE MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 5 FEET OR LESS BY EARLY
EVENING.
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FRESHEN TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS THE RIDGE EXITS E'WARD, A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE, AND A DEEPENING LOW
WOBBLES E'WARD IN VICINITY OF THE CANADA/NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BORDER. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REBUILD TO AS LARGE AS 4 TO
9 FEET, WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED EAST OF THE ISLANDS
BASED ON OUR WIND AND FETCH FORECAST. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS PROBABLE. S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 25 TO 40
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE POTENT LOW WOBBLES E'WARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A GALE WARNING WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED. WAVES AS LARGE AS 6 TO 12 FEET ARE FORECAST. SW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 25 TO 40 KNOTS VEER TO W'ERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
POTENT LOW WOBBLES NE'WARD TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL QUEBEC AND
ALLOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
WAVES AS LARGE AS 7 TO 14 FEET ARE FORECAST. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
TROUGH SHOULD LINGER OVER LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WSW'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY
WINDS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WAVES
SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TO 5 FEET OR LESS BY SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING. NOTE: A SEICHE IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
WILL PROBABLY PROMPT A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...04
MARINE...JASZKA
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