574
FXUS61 KCLE 160402
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1102 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
EARLY THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT IS ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THAT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE, MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BE MORE WESTERLY THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL GLANCE
THE SHORE OF MAINLY ERIE, PENNSYLVANIA, THOUGH COULD REACH DOWN INTO
FAR NORTHEASTERN OHIO BRIEFLY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH
THE BAND WITH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THE SNOW BAND WILL MOVE BACK OVER LAKE ERIE. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS, THOUGH
MOST MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH, THAT COULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS
BEING AROUND 0, IT'S POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS
THAT SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA AND BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY. IF
TEMPERATURES DO WARM UP TO ABOVE FREEZING, PRECIPITATION MAY FALL
MAINLY AS RAIN, THOUGH ROADS OR WALKWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK IF
UNTREATED SINCE THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW FREEZING. AGAIN, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS IF THEY DO DETERIORATE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WAA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE LOW AS THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE SUPPORT AND ANY
MOISTURE THERE IS, WILL BE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION, EXPECT IT TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND ELSEWHERE WILL STAY DRY FOR THE DAY.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH STRONGER WAA
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED 15-25 MPH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35-40 MPH. LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES HAVE TRENDED DOWN FOR WINDS ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA (31 MPH SUSTAINED AND 46 MPH GUSTS). IF THERE WERE ANY
GUSTS NEAR AND ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT WOULD BE INFREQUENT AND
LOCALIZED WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
AND ALONG THE LAKE SHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH
THE INCREASED WINDS, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SWEEPING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH POP CHANCES. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH QPF TOTALS AROUND
0.40-0.50" ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME LOW END PROBABILITIES OF
QPF TOTALS ABOVE 0.75" AND EVEN AN INCH, BUT THOSE WOULD BE
LOCALIZED AND ARE GENERALLY SOUTH OF US 30 AND NEAR THE EASTERN OHIO
LAKE SHORE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON THE RISE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WITH THE WAA WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 40S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY WITH STRONG CAA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT BEING IN
THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THERE WILL BE STRONG CAA OVER THE
REGION AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN NEAR -
15C THAT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT'S
DIFFICULT TO SAY THE EXTENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION GIVEN WE'RE 5 DAYS
OUT, BUT WITH HOW SHORT LIVED THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE, TOTALS SHOULD
STAY ON THE LOWER END. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL ON BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE REGION WILL DRY OUT TO START
THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH MOVING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE LOW 40S. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME IS
NOT LOOKING TO BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS LOW. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION TO START NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FOR THE MOST PART. A COUPLE OF THINGS TO MONITOR...A MID-LEVEL
DECK IS IMPACTING ERI AND MAY IMPACT CLE AND YNG FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE MVFR INCLUDED AT ERI,
WITH A 5,000 FOOT CEILING AND SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS AT THE
OTHER TWO FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE, A WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND MAY CLIP ERI OVERNIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN 5-9Z, BEFORE
WEAKENING AND LIFTING BACK OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
UTILIZE A PROB30 GROUP FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AT ERI, AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH
A TEMPO OR PREVAILING CONDITION AT THIS TIME.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER WINDS OF 3-8KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, PICKING BACK UP
TO 9-17KT ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME 25KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TOL, FDY, AND ERI. INTRODUCED
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TUESDAY EVENING AT TOL, FDY, MFD AND
CLE AS A 45-50KT LLJ OVERSPREADS A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD NON-VFR IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
IN RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NON-VFR LIKELY
LINGERS AT TIMES INTO FRIDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS, PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NUDGE EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST,
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS CONTINUE TO IMPACT LAKE ERIE
WITH WAVES OF 3-5 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT
THIS TIME.
LATE TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH DRIFT FURTHER FROM THE AREA,
WEAKENING THE OVERALL GRADIENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
AN APPROACHING TROUGH RETURNS GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE LULL IN WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY MORNING, OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT WITH THIS UPDATE, ALTHOUGH
LATER SHIFTS MAY OPT TO SIMPLY EXPAND THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER IN A NOTABLE GAP
BETWEEN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT SO OPTED TO NOT
EXTEND. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AGAIN IMPACTS
LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 12 FEET OR HIGHER IN THE OPEN WATERS AND 6-8
FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE. ON FRIDAY, A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AT 15-25
KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET. WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, THERE
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE A GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
LAKE ERIE WITH A SMALL CRAFT AT THE TALE END WHEN CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. CONFIDENCE ALSO CONTINUES TO BUILD THAT A LOW
WATER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN AS WATER LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LEZ144>149.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...04
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