125
FXUS61 KCLE 160837
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, BRINGING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES OF NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY, PA EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM US.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AS MOST OF THE AREA RISES TO ABOVE FREEZING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY GETTING UP TO
40. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN, THOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES, THOUGH THIS WOULD HAVE TO
OCCUR BEFORE ~12Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN THERE ARE STILL
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NAM HITS THE FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL THE HARDEST, THOUGH THAT'S A MODEL THAT TENDS TO
OVERFORECAST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, BRINGING IMPACTS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
INCLUDING WIND, RAIN, DRASTICALLY CHANGING TEMPERATURES, AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
RAIN:
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT IT WILL RAIN AREAWIDE SOMETIME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
STRONG LOW WILL YIELD STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE IN THE ENS/NAEFS 97.5TH PERCENTILE.
POPS ARE IN THE 90-100% RANGE FOR ABOUT A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD AND
FORECAST QPF IS RIGHT AROUND 0.5". THIS WON'T BE ENOUGH FOR
FLOODING, THOUGH WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR VERY MUCH YARDS.
WIND:
ENSEMBLES (ESPECIALLY GEFS/ENS) CONTINUE TO SHOW GREATER THAN
50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS, THOUGH THE
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS (CRITERIA FOR A WIND
ADVISORY) HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW FORECAST
CYCLES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON
THURSDAY, BEFORE QUICKLY BECOMING WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE:
WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE WARM SECTION WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE AT LEAST NOVEMBER 26. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AROUND 40, AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY ELIMINATE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SNOWPACK WE'VE WORKED
SO HARD TO BUILD UP. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 20 BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, REMAINING IN
THE 20S THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW:
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
BUILD IN, CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AT
LEAST -10 C. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE TRENDED WARMER BY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES,
REDUCING THE THERMODYNAMIC FAVORABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG
FLOW ALOFT (AT LEAST DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS) WILL
REDUCE RESIDENCE TIME OVER LAKE ERIE, AND MOISTURE DEPTH COULD
BE LACKING. REGARDLESS, SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED,
THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SOME OF THE MENTIONED
INHIBITING FACTORS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 40S ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOW POTENTIAL OF LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FOR THE MOST PART. A COUPLE OF THINGS TO MONITOR...A MID-LEVEL
DECK IS IMPACTING ERI AND MAY IMPACT CLE AND YNG FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE MVFR INCLUDED AT ERI,
WITH A 5,000 FOOT CEILING AND SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS AT THE
OTHER TWO FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE, A WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND MAY CLIP ERI OVERNIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN 5-9Z, BEFORE
WEAKENING AND LIFTING BACK OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
UTILIZE A PROB30 GROUP FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AT ERI, AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH
A TEMPO OR PREVAILING CONDITION AT THIS TIME.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER WINDS OF 3-8KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, PICKING BACK UP
TO 9-17KT ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME 25KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TOL, FDY, AND ERI. INTRODUCED
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TUESDAY EVENING AT TOL, FDY, MFD AND
CLE AS A 45-50KT LLJ OVERSPREADS A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. WIDESPREAD NON-VFR WITH RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR LIKELY LINGERS AT TIMES
INTO FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS ON THURSDAY, BECOMING WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NUDGE EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST,
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS CONTINUE TO IMPACT LAKE ERIE
WITH WAVES OF 3-5 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT
THIS TIME.
LATE TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH DRIFT FURTHER FROM THE AREA,
WEAKENING THE OVERALL GRADIENT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
AN APPROACHING TROUGH RETURNS GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE LULL IN WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY MORNING, OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT WITH THIS UPDATE, ALTHOUGH
LATER SHIFTS MAY OPT TO SIMPLY EXPAND THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER IN A NOTABLE GAP
BETWEEN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT SO OPTED TO NOT
EXTEND. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BRIEF LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AGAIN IMPACTS
LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 12 FEET OR HIGHER IN THE OPEN WATERS AND 6-8
FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE. ON FRIDAY, A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AT 15-25
KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET. WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, THERE
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE A GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
LAKE ERIE WITH A SMALL CRAFT AT THE TALE END WHEN CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. CONFIDENCE ALSO CONTINUES TO BUILD THAT A LOW
WATER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN AS WATER LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>149.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JASZKA
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