789
FXUS61 KCLE 160908
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
408 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, BRINGING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES OF NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY, PA EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM US.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AS MOST OF THE AREA RISES TO ABOVE FREEZING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY GETTING UP TO
40. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN, THOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES, THOUGH THIS WOULD HAVE TO
OCCUR BEFORE ~12Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN THERE ARE STILL
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NAM HITS THE FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL THE HARDEST, THOUGH THAT'S A MODEL THAT TENDS TO
OVERFORECAST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, BRINGING IMPACTS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
INCLUDING WIND, RAIN, DRASTICALLY CHANGING TEMPERATURES, AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
RAIN:
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT IT WILL RAIN AREAWIDE SOMETIME
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
STRONG LOW WILL YIELD STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE IN THE ENS/NAEFS 97.5TH PERCENTILE.
POPS ARE IN THE 90-100% RANGE FOR ABOUT A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD AND
FORECAST QPF IS RIGHT AROUND 0.5". THIS WON'T BE ENOUGH FOR
FLOODING, THOUGH WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR VERY MUCH YARDS.
WIND:
ENSEMBLES (ESPECIALLY GEFS/ENS) CONTINUE TO SHOW GREATER THAN
50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS, THOUGH THE
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS (CRITERIA FOR A WIND
ADVISORY) HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW FORECAST
CYCLES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON
THURSDAY, BEFORE QUICKLY BECOMING WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE:
WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE WARM SECTION WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE AT LEAST NOVEMBER 26. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AROUND 40, AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY ELIMINATE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SNOWPACK WE'VE WORKED
SO HARD TO BUILD UP. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 20 BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, REMAINING IN
THE 20S THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW:
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
BUILD IN, CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AT
LEAST -10 C. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE TRENDED WARMER BY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES,
REDUCING THE THERMODYNAMIC FAVORABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG
FLOW ALOFT (AT LEAST DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS) WILL
REDUCE RESIDENCE TIME OVER LAKE ERIE, AND MOISTURE DEPTH COULD
BE LACKING. REGARDLESS, SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED,
THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE IS IN QUESTION DUE TO SOME OF THE MENTIONED
INHIBITING FACTORS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 40S ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOW POTENTIAL OF LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FOR THE MOST PART. A COUPLE OF THINGS TO MONITOR...A MID-LEVEL
DECK IS IMPACTING ERI AND MAY IMPACT CLE AND YNG FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE MVFR INCLUDED AT ERI,
WITH A 5,000 FOOT CEILING AND SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS AT THE
OTHER TWO FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE, A WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND MAY CLIP ERI OVERNIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN 5-9Z, BEFORE
WEAKENING AND LIFTING BACK OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO
UTILIZE A PROB30 GROUP FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AT ERI, AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH
A TEMPO OR PREVAILING CONDITION AT THIS TIME.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER WINDS OF 3-8KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, PICKING BACK UP
TO 9-17KT ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME 25KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TOL, FDY, AND ERI. INTRODUCED
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TUESDAY EVENING AT TOL, FDY, MFD AND
CLE AS A 45-50KT LLJ OVERSPREADS A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. WIDESPREAD NON-VFR WITH RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR LIKELY LINGERS AT TIMES
INTO FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS ON THURSDAY, BECOMING WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TODAY TO 7 PM EST
TOMORROW FROM VERMILION TO RIPLEY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TODAY TO 12 PM EST
TOMORROW FROM MAUMEE BAY TO VERMILION
SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOME S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AND FRESHEN GRADUALLY TO AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS BY THIS EARLY EVENING AS A RIDGE EXITS E'WARD FROM THE LAKE
ERIE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A DEEPENING LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY ENE'WARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. WAVES OF MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
WATERS. DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WAVES BUILD TO AS
LARGE AS 4 TO 8 FEET, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT E'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEEPENS FURTHER WHILE MOVING ENE'WARD
FROM SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO QC, A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP
NE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SW'ERLY WINDS AS
STRONG AS 25 TO 32 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS
STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROJECTED
PATH OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT GENERALLY N'WARD AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. WAVES AS LARGE AS 5 TO 11 FEET ARE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
ON WEDNESDAY, SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT
DAYBREAK WILL EASE TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING AS A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THEN THE
AXIS OF A NARROW RIDGE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD WESTERN
NY. IN RESPONSE, WINDS SHIFT TO S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WAVES AS LARGE AS 5 TO 11 FEET AT
DAYBREAK SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 5 FEET OR LESS BY EARLY EVENING, WHEN THE
LARGEST WAVES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS.
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, THE RIDGE EXITS E'WARD, A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE, AND A POTENT LOW WOBBLES
E'WARD IN VICINITY OF THE CANADA/NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES BORDER
AND LAKE SUPERIOR. ACCORDINGLY, S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO
NEARLY 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN TO AROUND
20 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. ANY LINGERING 4 TO 5 FOOTERS IN OPEN U.S
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS IN ALL
U.S. WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING, WAVES SHOULD
REBUILD TO AS LARGE AS 6 TO 12 FEET. THE LARGEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE ISLANDS BASED ON OUR WIND AND FETCH FORECAST. ANOTHER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS PROBABLE.
S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS FRESHEN TO ABOUT 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND VEER TO
W'ERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT LOW WOBBLES NE'WARD TOWARD WEST-
CENTRAL QC, DEEPENS, AND ALLOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP E'WARD
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WAVES AS LARGE AS 7 TO 14 FEET ARE FORECAST AND A
GALE WARNING STILL APPEARS PROBABLE. BEHIND THE FRONT, A TROUGH
SHOULD LINGER OVER LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WSW'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY WINDS SHOULD EASE
GRADUALLY TO AROUND 15 TO 30 KNOTS AND WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE SLOWLY
TO 8 FEET OR LESS BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. NOTE: A SEICHE IS LIKELY
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PROBABLY PROMPT A LOW WATER
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, THE AXIS OF THE NARROW RIDGE SHOULD TRAVERSE
LAKE ERIE FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE, A WARM
FRONT SHOULD SWEEP N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. ACCORDINGLY,
W'ERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BACK TO S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WAVES AS LARGE AS 4 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ON SATURDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXIT E'WARD AND INTERACT WITH A DEEPENING LOW THAT
SHOULD WOBBLE E'WARD IN VICINITY OF THE MN/ON BORDER AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS SHOULD FRESHEN TO AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS. WAVES AS LARGE AS 5 TO 9 FEET ARE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE ISLANDS
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JASZKA
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